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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (16178)	6/6/1999 8:25:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Hi Gersh, >>> 1. I think that it might be fair to say that a rate hike is "priced into the market" already. If that is the case then when it takes place the market should head north (buy the news). <<< The DOW is now only down 300 points off its highs(2.7%), but the NAZ is down about 7.4% off its highs. One could make the arguement that the a .25 rate hike is priced in for the NAZ, but maybe not the DOW. Now if it is priced in at these levels, does that mean if the market goes back near its highs it is no longer priced in as much? Is it being priced in, or ignored? I heard from the media, that it is priced into the bond market but not the stock market, and I have also heard that it is priced into both. seeya

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (16178)	6/6/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Gersh ; I expect the Dollar will go up before the rate hike in fact it's been climbing , it'll likely sell into the official news .. Still what I expect and what I get are not always the same, if the market didn't surprise me every so often I'd lose interest it. ------------------- IMO It's fast climb lately has stalled the Europeans and Japanese from selling off more of our blue chips ( for the time being as in their eyes our market is climbing ) and they anticipate getting dollars that are worth more. If we get much more upside ( to the blue chips ) I'll suspect them of buying stocks.. ( not all our blue chips just trade on our market ) Up until last week they were the main net sellers. The dance the Dollar does is a whole story in itself and I don't feel up to getting into tath. But we do need to picture our major indexes Adjusted to a Dollar INDEX to have any idea of what's going on. We are in a Global economy and just looking at our index in relation to the U.S. dollar with out considering what foreigners see is such a shallow view I can't fathom what is the cause of such ignorance that all the money gurus they parade on CNBC who fail to point taht out. Damm if I said it once I'v said it at least 20 times don't just settle for TA on an index..particularly if the dollar is making moves..the index may look flat to us today but be going up if the dollar is moving up, and it may look like a rocket to us, but be going down if the dollar is falling. ------------------------------ decisionpoint.com find a take off point as it's all relative and adjust the SPX or OEX percentage wise to the up/dowm % of the dollar at major points and see what the BIG boys have been trading on. And the dollar has climbed back to it's highs before the rate cuts so a hike is priced into it, ( but not the market as we will still get a knee jerk reaction from the local not so experts who think they are when the official news comes.. ---------------- But I feel the Big boys will most likely sell the dollar or short it on the news, however they will want to extract money out of stocks before they dump out of the dollar. Jim