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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16193)	6/6/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To Jim and All: BE SURE AND READ THIS POST... I don't usually spend a lot of time on SI Sunday Mornings, but I made a mistake and took a look at the Hot Subjects list this am. One grabbed my attention, so I thought I would take a quick look...WOW, it was a new thread just started yesterday by Eric P. I read all the post (thank goodness for BrowseMaster)...I highly recommend that all read this thread. It will be well worth your time, trust me! START AT THE BEGINING, DON'T MISS THOSE FIRST FEW POST. DAYTRADING Fundamentals #Subject-28734 Regards, LG

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16193)	6/6/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I want to add an after thought to my last post. The general picture I have ( not based on facts I can measure very good but more on like just trying to look at the weather and size up ahead of time if we will have a hot summer or cold winter or will the Mississippi Flood this spring. Taht last one I'm good on calling ahead of time. ------------------------ Back to the market picture, as a rough draft I would guess that 80% of the people in the market are truly investors and have taken the longer term view as they have been programmed to do so by most of the gurus, and including fund managers who flip 150% or more of their portfolio a year. So lets just say we have 80% investors and 20% traders. I point at that to say my guess is 95% of the stock flipped is done by 20% or less of the people in the market. A very emotional 20% at that, with figures like Jim Carmer some where in the lead of the emotional herd. This sort of makes one wonder just what does volume say about the 20% of flippers, & as for the most part the volume belongs to them. The above may not be very close to the actual figures it's just there to provoke some thought. ( not arguments as to the real numbers as I doubt any of us have them ) --------------------- Jimmy Rogers went on some world tour and was reporting back about conditions here and there and what might be good or bad places to stick your money, but missing from his reports was "what those people thought about the U.S. market, and how many of them owned American Stocks." if that was in any of his yada yada I sure missed it. I'm afraid Jimmy went with a mind set and saw what he expected to see as most of us do, and was also into his own thing so much taht he never focused on the item that likely effects the most of us the most. ------------------------ Indecently ( OT ) back in 72 ( if my memory serves me the correct date) I predicted the big floods far ahead of the best of the weather men , I'm not normally very good at calling weather short term.. however back then what helped is I was in Key West at the time and being a people person I talked to the Snow Birds as we called them who came down from up north on vacation. One thing I got out of them was that their winter was ending very early and flowers were staring to bloom well ahead of schedule. Putting two and two together I knew the snow melt was going to be BIG and early and that the Mississippi would be in for extreme flooding. But being I wasn't some certified weather expert no one paid any mind To this day I can not fathom with all the new technology we have why the experts can't seem to call the River Stage well ahead of time at least when it comes to extremes. And how they always seem to have to make last minute stabs that often fail at preventing the river from washing out it's dikes. They know the level ( or can measure it ) of the snow cap in the mountains before the spring, and if Spring springs early with a goodly snow cap they should act before they see the damm River rising. ---------- Of course I also see the Fumbling Fed caught up in the same almost mindless condition about the future health of the economy. I guess it's just human nature that experts in any field get so full of themselves and develop mind sets taht in time become not only invalid but often out and out dangerous. ------------ One thing that concerns me is over the years even over the Centuries, history repeatedly says some things we tend to ignore but they are things that won't likely every change. When ever any mass of people accept some worldly icon or " saviours " of the day then that mass of people eventually miss the next train and either get over run or left behind. --------------- So much for icons, be them Buffet, Bill Gates, CreemSpam , or Lincon , I find that people who use them extensively as icons in a fashion to prop up their own ideas are much like a drunk who thinks a lamp post is to lean on to keep from falling down , instead of giving off light. More often than not they are educated and can use $5 words but to shallow minded to be creative enough to justify taking up my time..the minute I pick up a book and it starts off with iconisum I put it back down or trash it. --------------- The other day I was at a club meeting and the being honored as being the "old timer" , I used it to remind them that when the club started there were no old timers , and if it was to keep going and hold on to it's original foundation it would be up to the new comers, as that was all there was in the begining. Jim