To: RMiethe who wrote (5084 ) 6/6/1999 3:32:00 PM From: RMiethe Respond to of 29987
Also, not to gang up on Grubman, but it would be important to see where his view was when Motorola first announced its entry into cellular back in the very late 1970's and early '80s. I can recall the attitude towards the Motorola cell phone from a number of commission paid sell-side analysts. The phone was too big, no automobile would really take to it, and it had too many voice and connect problems to have dependability. I listened to all that. Had I done the work I should have, I would have bought into Motorola far earlier than I did, Instead I waited for "predictability, visibility" coming around. I paid too much attention to "the research" fed us, instead of doing my own. As I keep writing on this board, you have to have been around managing money a very long time-- 10 years ain't long enough, try around 20 or more, so you can remember what the attitude towards new technologies was at the time of their announcements, and so on before one simply reads a comment from any analyst in 1999 and says "He's the man". I need a lot more factual comments from any analyst, showing he or she did the due diligence, before I'll listen. Especially when it comes to a brand new technology. As far as Globalstar is concerned, I have not seen any due diligence from Wall Street on subscriber potential--just guess work and opinions, which are no better or worse than my own. Then, one company falls flat on its face, which I always expected it to do because of its price structure, and then everyone wants to say what happened to that company will happen to all others entering the field. I think that can be said only when due diligence showing there is no market for satcom telephony is presented. And to this hour, I haven't seen it. Maybe I'll call Grubman tomorrow and ask him for his-- and the names of those ten people who, according to him, said the Iridium phone did not work.