To: Mark Fowler who wrote (60896 ) 6/6/1999 6:25:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
WALL ST WEEK AHEAD - Summer rally may lift stocks By Cal Mankowski NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street may be ready for a summer rally as it heads into a quiet period with few earnings announcements on the calendar this week and the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting not scheduled until the end of the month. "As long as rates stay below 6.0 percent there is potential" for a rally, said Rao Chalasani, chief investment strategist for Everen Securities. Such a move could take the Dow Jones industrial average as high as 11,600, he said. One of the key ingredients for a move to new highs would be anticipation of good earnings reports for the second and third quarters. Corporations will benefit from easier comparisons because the periods last year were lackluster for many companies, Chalasani said. Salomon Smith Barney on Friday cited improved productivity and weaker unit labor costs for slight upward revisions in its earnings outlook for the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. The index is now expected to post a profit of $47.75 per share this year, up from a prior forecast of $46.50, and for 2000 the brokerage expects S&P 500 earnings of $49.50 per share, up from an earlier $47.90 forecast. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter strategist Peter Canelo also cited increasing confidence that technology, telecommunications and other growth categories will see very respectable earnings comparisons in the second quarter. At the same time, Canelo said that while cyclicals may not see their earnings rebound strongly this quarter, an improved economic outlook nevertheless will benefit this group. Canelo also noted that exports have been picking up which is good for manufacturers of capital goods and basic industries. With not much on the plate this week in the way of earnings releases, investors will be on the alert for any hints coming from a series of conferences. PaineWebber Group Inc. is running its 10th annual growth & technology conference from Tuesday through Thursday in New York. Among those lined up to participate are Microsoft Corp. <MSFT.O>, AT&T Corp. <T.N>, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. <BBBY.O> and Lucent Technologies Inc. <LU.N>. Schering-Plough Corp. <SGP.N> and Immunex Corp. <IMNX.O> are among a number of pharmaceutical companies taking part in the Painewebber meeting. Supercomm '99, the year's biggest telecommunications equipment trade show, starts on Monday in Atlanta and runs all week. BT Alex. Brown holds a media and telecommunications conference in New York from Monday through Wednesday with presentations on tap by a number of telephone, broadcasting, publishing and Internet companies. On the earnings front, Internet venture fund CMGI Inc. <CMGI.O> is expected to report earnings for the three month period ended in April. CMGI's report is expected early in the week. Probably the most eagerly awaited earnings report will be that of National Semiconductor Corp. <NSM.N> which is expected on Thursday. Stockholders meetings scheduled this week are those of General Motors Corp. <GM.N> in Wilmington, Del. on Monday and Toys R Us Inc. <TOY.N> in Atlanta on Wednesday. Among economic indicators, May producer prices will probably get the most attention this week. That report and the May retail sales report, come out simultaneously on Friday morning. Producer prices will be carefully scrutinized following the surprising 0.7 percent jump in April consumer prices. The May consumer prices report does not come out until June 16. The yield on the 30-year Treasury issue was 5.97 percent late Friday, with the bond off 4/32. The Dow industrials rose 136.15 points to end the week at 10,799.84.