Silicon Investor - j.c.penney

[X-Ray Man] Short squeeze?

X-Ray Man — 6/12/2017 9:50:33 AM

[X-Ray Man] Saba Capital revealed in a 13F filing that it has added J.C. Penney JCP to its ...

X-Ray Man — 5/16/2017 4:56:23 PM

Saba Capital revealed in a 13F filing that it has added J.C. Penney JCP to its portfolio during the three- month period that ended March 31, with a 1.4-million-share stake worth about $8.68 million then, or $6.44 million at today's close of $4.60/share. It will be interesting to learn if they recently increased or decreased their position. Barron's claims the release of the 13F today accounts for the stock's rise. Also, short interest is down almost 4 points.

[X-Ray Man] Earnings report was viewed as dismal. While there was an upside surprise, it was...

X-Ray Man — 5/16/2017 2:35:19 PM

Earnings report was viewed as dismal. While there was an upside surprise, it was due to sale of property which happened to be an asset on the operational side of the books. This was clearly explained, but some analysts took this as an attempt to "hide" the loss. Loss was worse than expecting, after subtracting for the asset sale, due to poor SS comps, although almost all of the negatives occurred in February, with recovery of sales in March and April. Nevertheless, this was taken as a confirmation of the failure of the turn around taking hold, especially in the wake of poor sales reported at both Macy's and Nordstrom's just previously. Stock dropped precipitously. On the other hand, nothing suggested that the plan already put in place was not on track, and management maintained their prediction of profit for the full year. Moreover, the SSS challenge with poor February matched what was reported by other department and apparel stores before and now after. Today, TJ Maxx reported poor results too, with the same bad February followed by March and April recover. I believe that is why JCP stock had a major uptick today, since it suggests the story is industry wide and even the best performers where affected in the same way, and thus JCP may have been seen as oversold. Will this just be a post dump bounce, or part of a longer slow recovery? I still think the latter, or at this cheap price, that an acquisition seems even more likely, perhaps by a private fund.

[X-Ray Man] Short interest has significantly increased heading into earnings announcement. B...

X-Ray Man — 5/10/2017 10:33:18 AM

Short interest has significantly increased heading into earnings announcement. But the majority of that appears to be option straddles, to hedge growing volatility. In any case, this suggests unexpected upside report in earnings could generate the speculated short squeeze.

[X-Ray Man] M&A possibility? Recent press suggests Macy's may be looking for an acquisition....

X-Ray Man — 4/22/2017 11:23:47 AM

M&A possibility? Recent press suggests Macy's may be looking for an acquisition. Additional press suggests Macy's is looking to reproduce JC Penney's store-in-store strategy. JC Penney's market cap is 1/8th that of Macy's, with its stock price near an all time low. Acquiring JC Penny, even after closing overlapping store locations, would more than double the store footprint, and allow Macy's to get into areas it currently does not participate in, like home appliance and decor.

[X-Ray Man] Price continues to slip and short interest grow without any news. But there may ...

X-Ray Man — 4/21/2017 3:45:00 PM

Price continues to slip and short interest grow without any news. But there may be a hint of an upside event coming that could catalyze a short squeeze. The decision last week to delay closing of stores is interesting, because it suggests this quarter will show more revenue than previously anticipated, something probably not picked up on by analysts. And while the assumption is that is due to publicity surrounding the anticipated closings, one would rather have expected drop in sales as people waited for the planned liquidation sales. So two things could also be hinted at here: 1) that sales generally might have been better at stores countrywide and 2) they will lose less and have lower cost of closing the stores on the chopping block than originally planned. Both could contribute to an upside surprise in earnings when they report in May.

[X-Ray Man] Set up for a short squeeze? Short interest in JCP is over 35% of the float, ev...

X-Ray Man — 4/5/2017 12:48:28 PM

Set up for a short squeeze?

Short interest in JCP is over 35% of the float, even after the stock being clearly oversold and price dropping significantly YTD and recently, with no real material change in outlook since the end of last year. JCP seems to be following through on their turnaround plan, has just become (barely) profitable, has been retiring debt and liquidating non-performing real estate and stores. All of this means it can take advantage of other stores in its retail space exiting or losing market share, and may even become a good acquisition target. So an performance surprise or bid on JCP could easily create a short squeeze?

Xray Man

[Fuzzy] 3:17 am J. C. Penney beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 EPS above...

Fuzzy — 2/26/2016 5:55:11 AM

3:17 am J. C. Penney beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 EPS above consensus ( JCP) :

Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.39 per share, $0.17 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.22; revenues rose 2.6% year/year to $4 bln vs the $3.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Same Store Sales +4.1 % in Fourth Quarter; +4.5% for Full Year

Co issues upside guidance for FY17, sees EPS of expected to be positive vs. ($0.26) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

[Fuzzy] J.C. Penney Q2 Loss Narrows Y/Y on Turnaround Strategies [graphic] Done ...

Fuzzy — 8/19/2014 1:55:32 PM

J.C. Penney Q2 Loss Narrows Y/Y on Turnaround Strategies

Done

J. C. Penney Company Inc.’s ( JCP) turnaround strategies seem to have paid off yet again, as the company’s second-quarter fiscal 2014 adjusted loss of 75 cents a share not only narrowed substantially from a loss of $2.16 last year, but also fared better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 98 cents.

Including one-time items, quarterly loss came in at 56 cents per share, compared with a loss of $2.66 per share in the year-ago period.

[Justinfo] How is he getting to the 250M interest payments? Is the 250M for long term debt?...

Justinfo — 10/31/2013 11:43:29 AM

How is he getting to the 250M interest payments? Is the 250M for long term debt? How about other commitments like cap leases, notes, revolving credit payments?

[Jon T] Marc Lasry is long JCP Debt. Hat-tip to Market Folly. Idea #1 is J.C. Penn...

Jon T — 10/31/2013 2:43:11 AM

Marc Lasry is long JCP Debt.

Hat-tip to Market Folly.
Idea #1 is J.C. Penney Debt
o Why JC Penney? Convince to go and shop
o Everyone believes JCP will file for bankruptcy
o Bonds mispriced based on that assumption
o JCP operates in 49 states (no Hawaii)
o Slowing retail environment and they get rid of old CEO and bring in Ron Johnson
o Ron Johnson took a bunch of risk
o Coupons and promotions here historical
o Prior to new strategy $17 billion in sales $1.4 billion of EBITDA yet goes to -$500 million of EBITDA
o Able to raise $2.2 billion of new debt to get to $3 billion of debt and $2.5 billion on unsecured – but that have $2 billion of cash
o Interest payments are $250 million so hard to file of bankruptcy
o JCP survives unless the value differential
o Make ~25% return per year for 2 years in debt so you are making 80x RFR due to the believe that JCP will file bankruptcy
o Same stores sales are flat to up
o So you are creating the company
o Majority is telling you “you are wrong”
o “Nobody likes noise and don’t want to deal with it and that creates opportunity”

[Justinfo] GM growth decline along with Sales for JCP and its peers: JCP ...

Justinfo — 10/30/2013 8:52:43 AM

GM growth decline along with Sales for JCP and its peers:

JCP
	Q2-2013	Q1-2013	Q3-2012	Q2-2012	Q1-2012	Q3-2011	Q2-2011	Q1-2011	Q3-2010	Q2-2010	Q1-2010	Q3-2009	Q2-2009	Q1-2009	Q3-2008	Q2-2008	Q1-2008	Q3-2007	Q2-2007	Q1-2007	Q3-2006	Q2-2006	Q1-2006	Q3-2005	Q2-2005	Q1-2005
Sales growth (YOY	-11.88%	-16.40%	-26.57%	-22.63%	-20.06%	-4.85%	-0.81%	0.36%	0.24%	-0.13%	1.16%	-3.22%	-7.92%	-5.89%	-8.69%	-2.48%	-5.13%	-1.09%	3.61%	3.08%	6.74%	6.46%	0.67%	0.40%	3.21%	3.94%
Gross Margin growth(YOY)	-11.05%	-18.10%	-12.93%	-13.31%	-6.98%	-4.29%	-2.75%	-2.49%	-3.83%	2.23%	2.37%	5.31%	2.78%	1.36%	-3.01%	-1.62%	-3.75%	-6.83%	-0.76%	-0.90%	1.93%	0.88%	1.63%	2.50%	1.79%	3.00%
GM (Qtr)	29.55%	30.82%	32.52%	33.22%	37.63%	37.36%	38.33%	40.45%	39.03%	39.41%	41.49%	40.58%	38.55%	40.53%	38.54%	37.51%	39.98%	39.73%	38.12%	41.54%	42.65%	38.41%	41.92%	41.84%	38.08%	41.25%


KSS
	Q2-2013	Q1-2013	Q3-2012	Q2-2012	Q1-2012	Q3-2011	Q2-2011	Q1-2011	Q3-2010	Q2-2010	Q1-2010	Q3-2009	Q2-2009	Q1-2009	Q3-2008	Q2-2008	Q1-2008	Q3-2007	Q2-2007	Q1-2007	Q3-2006	Q2-2006	Q1-2006	Q3-2005	Q2-2005	Q1-2005
Sales growth (YOY	2.00%	-1.04%	2.61%	-1.01%	1.95%	3.75%	3.61%	3.15%	4.12%	7.72%	10.91%	6.50%	2.16%	0.38%	-0.56%	3.80%	1.46%	5.17%	9.05%	12.16%	16.60%	13.97%	16.11%	13.68%	15.62%	15.24%
Gross Margin growth(YOY)	0.07%	1.31%	-1.15%	-4.01%	-5.74%	0.31%	1.02%	0.04%	1.22%	0.83%	1.30%	1.56%	0.88%	2.08%	0.90%	1.76%	-0.04%	-0.06%	3.43%	2.21%	2.16%	1.66%	0.58%	1.09%	1.56%	0.68%
GM (Qtr)	39.08%	36.39%	38.13%	39.05%	35.92%	38.57%	40.68%	38.11%	38.45%	40.27%	38.09%	37.99%	39.94%	37.60%	37.41%	39.59%	36.84%	37.07%	38.91%	36.85%	37.09%	37.61%	36.05%	36.31%	37.00%	35.85%


SHLD
	Q2-2013	Q1-2013	Q3-2012	Q2-2012	Q1-2012	Q3-2011	Q2-2011	Q1-2011	Q3-2010	Q2-2010	Q1-2010	Q3-2009	Q2-2009	Q1-2009	Q3-2008	Q2-2008	Q1-2008	Q3-2007	Q2-2007	Q1-2007	Q3-2006	Q2-2006	Q1-2006	Q3-2005	Q2-2005	Q1-2005
Sales growth (YOY	-6.30%	-8.82%	-7.40%	-8.38%	-4.48%	-1.17%	-1.20%	-3.39%	-5.02%	-0.88%	-0.09%	-4.41%	-10.30%	-9.15%	-7.69%	-3.90%	-5.42%	-3.29%	-4.27%	-2.47%	-1.46%	-2.51%	57.52%	177.82%	175.69%	65.24%
Gross Margin growth(YOY)	-7.83%	-7.88%	-0.57%	3.66%	3.32%	-3.17%	-4.45%	-4.86%	-2.84%	1.90%	-1.41%	1.57%	-0.20%	4.61%	-2.19%	-4.28%	-2.70%	-3.41%	-2.25%	1.05%	1.14%	2.76%	7.48%	0.00%
GM (Qtr)	24.64%	25.51%	25.44%	26.73%	27.69%	25.58%	25.79%	26.80%	26.42%	26.99%	28.17%	27.19%	26.49%	28.57%	26.77%	26.54%	27.31%	27.37%	27.73%	28.07%	28.34%	28.37%	27.78%	28.02%	27.61%	25.85%

[Justinfo] They should have enough liquidity with this equity raise for the next few quarte...

Justinfo — 10/29/2013 6:25:32 PM

They should have enough liquidity with this equity raise for the next few quarters, now to watch if they can control the cash burn. Frankly I need to see GM rising, along with inventory levels dropping within the quarter or two for any turnaround chances.

[Sr K] JCP with a closing market cap of $2.3 billion, is selling $1 billion of new shar...

Sr K — 9/26/2013 7:21:33 PM

JCP with a closing market cap of $2.3 billion, is selling $1 billion of new shares, 84 million shares plus a 15% overallotment.

After-hours it is 9.88.