Silicon Investor - Take the Money and Run

[Patrick Slevin] Guess I missed it ;~)

Patrick Slevin — 5/15/2019 5:36:50 PM

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[Patrick Slevin] Missed the Solstice [graphic]

Patrick Slevin — 6/29/2018 1:51:38 PM

Missed the Solstice

[Patrick Slevin] Just in time to wish you the same for the Autumnal Equinox, Chip!

Patrick Slevin — 9/19/2017 8:30:50 AM

[Chip McVickar] Happy Equinox Patrick...

Chip McVickar — 3/27/2017 12:05:16 AM

[John Pitera] Thank you much Patrick, Great to hear that you have been getting my emails. I ...

John Pitera — 3/20/2017 4:48:15 PM

Thank you much Patrick,

Great to hear that you have been getting my emails. I am sure that you are quite busy.

My best,

John

[Patrick Slevin] Happy New Year to you as well, John. Happy Saint Patrick's also. Been receivin...

Patrick Slevin — 3/19/2017 11:50:35 AM

Happy New Year to you as well, John. Happy Saint Patrick's also.

Been receiving your e-mails, thanks. Been incredibly busy. The Market takes up so much of my time I rarely do much other than trade.

Hope you are well.

[John Pitera] Message 30913245

John Pitera — 1/6/2017 5:40:52 AM

[John Pitera] Happy new year Patrick, Message 30894839 this article will expand considerably...

John Pitera — 1/1/2017 3:40:58 AM

Happy new year Patrick,

Message 30894839

this article will expand considerably on what I had written regarding.... The Wool Worth empire.... and how it has been transformed into a much larger one.

My Mom' s Dad and her brother Butch spent the years from 1964-2003 running the a 6600 hundred acre nature persevere.. that they pulled more hardwood off of than than we could shake a stick at while simultaneously making capital improvements on the land with an 8 mile road around the principle lake and then numerous offshoots on so much of the rest of the property.....home of the Kirby's.....

I learned much about how wealth is created and passed down.. by watching it occur over the years.

the glorious thing is that that land itself can stay on the book at ti's 1964 value... while multiple buildings, including repair SHOPS and lodges can be depreciated over a 20 or so year period.

...
I always enjoying my talks with FM Kirby II... over the years.

JJP

[John Pitera] good analogy....... and Sears build their very large tower in Chicago..Now the ...

John Pitera — 11/8/2016 12:31:10 AM

good analogy....... and Sears build their very large tower in Chicago..Now the Willis tower..

Woolworth's was quite the company in it's day ..... Stock symbol was Z...... The Woolworth tower in Manhattan was the world's tallest building when it was constructed in the early 1900's.

One of the families that held a vast majority of Woolworth Shares in the 1910-20's time period went on to Purchase most of the shares in Allegheny.... symbol Y... and that company was built into quite a company. Sold IDS to AXP which has become Ameriprise..... spun off 175 year old Chicago Title and Trust... and the buying and selling of Re Insurance businesses etc.

Now all the shares and the money has moved to Foundations, and offshore Foundations and investments that effectively conceal how much money you have.

after all for "old money"....... not displaying it ostentatiously.. or better yet not at all is "de riguer" in such social circles.

-------------------------------------

JP

[Patrick Slevin] Today's version of the late 1800s Sears & Roebuck or so it seems.

Patrick Slevin — 11/3/2016 11:23:24 AM

[John Pitera] AMZN is an amazing company ... there is not a company that is comparable to it.

John Pitera — 11/2/2016 11:38:20 PM

[Patrick Slevin] FedSpeak today media.giphy.com

Patrick Slevin — 11/2/2016 12:54:50 PM

[Patrick Slevin] I still have a small $AMZN position. I trade around it writing calls. currently ...

Patrick Slevin — 11/2/2016 12:54:18 PM

I still have a small $AMZN position. I trade around it writing calls. currently Short Nov 11 820 for $1.38 from this morning.

Just a long term hold....

[John Pitera] btw..saw your tweet a week or so ago on the analyst who says AMZN's AWS is worth...

John Pitera — 11/1/2016 10:06:02 PM

btw..saw your tweet a week or so ago on the analyst who says AMZN's AWS is worth 200 billion.

He's probably right about that. I am not surprised that AMZN missed on their numbers this Q. They had great numbers a Quarter or so ago and Bezos promptly sold a Billion dollars of AMZN stock into the strong price advance.

JP

[John Pitera] Ahhhhh you are doing good work my friend. If we continue at this rate I estimat...

John Pitera — 11/1/2016 10:01:32 PM

Ahhhhh you are doing good work my friend.

If we continue at this rate I estimate the number will hit in the Year 2039 in either late April or early May.

Perhaps we could start a Y2K39 contest.

your forecast may end up being quite prescient... kind of like the high schooler, who has gotten national media attention this past week. In his 1993 yearbook photo, his caption reads.... the cubs will win the world series in 2016 ..... that will be quite a prediction If the cubs can continue their 3 games to 1 come back against the Indians.

JP

[Patrick Slevin] Well I'm doing my part. Here is post 17623

Patrick Slevin — 10/30/2016 9:04:03 PM

[John Pitera] Patrick ..I am still keeping an eye on this thread for 20k!!

John Pitera — 8/18/2016 4:17:35 AM

[Patrick Slevin] I've done it now and then, Create the Program, run it on sample data then walk ...

Patrick Slevin — 4/15/2013 6:39:58 PM

I've done it now and then,

Create the Program, run it on sample data then walk forward with out of sample data.

It's a grind but some love doing it. Or appear to.

[John Pitera] these are posts from Jorjs thread ...........Take the Money and run.......... ...

John Pitera — 4/15/2013 3:03:32 AM

these are posts from Jorjs thread ...........Take the Money and run..........

Hi Patick.... yes we are testing everything....... correlations can go from insanely consisted to absolutely breaking down...... the after spending 90 minuetes on saturday night we looked at a 3 dimensionaly corellation of the spread between the 2 and 10 year part of the yield curve and then overlaying the correlation of the SPX as well as third key monetary interest rate that I think I said I would not talk about in public........ I have some charts that we sit back and look at and it's got like 6 moving variables.....and sometimes they correlated massively and at other times such as 2008........ they completely break down..... the fact that they completely break down may well mean that these signals are the "canaries in the coalmine" and that they are leading indicators that we are preparing for a major financial meltdown........ and you know what that means in terms of shorting equities, running to treasuries...... and getting out of risk assets and currencies....... I'll see if I can post one on of these charts tomorrow........ I think I actually have to get clearance...... so as someone does not arrive at my door and sue me to death or more practically place 2 9 mm's in my head.

that would be very effective in shutting down my posting.

John

[John Pitera] yes we are dilegently back testing a number of mechanical trading systems..........

John Pitera — 4/15/2013 2:35:12 AM

yes we are dilegently back testing a number of mechanical trading systems....... paying programmer $100 Hour to Back test data...............

people who want to remain anoymouns...... are involved... they have alimony payments..... and every other manner of complications in their lives....... we have some currency systems that look they can return 20% month after month....... but as you know with back testing and data optimizing you have several months of those returns in your account. Also anyone who has every done backtesting and really gotten serious about it knows that the more you tweek a system to enhance trailing 12 month trading and earnings finds that they have over tuned the system and they need a system that is more robust and not as specific regarding the very specific values you use for your trading systems........... that's like a million dollars of free advice...... but it's a tragedy........... that so few people do their homework and learn about this.

John

[Patrick Slevin] Have not paid attention to 2 and 10. I glance at 10 and 30 sometimes to see if a...

Patrick Slevin — 4/14/2013 8:16:25 AM

Have not paid attention to 2 and 10. I glance at 10 and 30 sometimes to see if a spread is a good trade.

You are backtesting the correlation, I guess?

[John Pitera] [graphic]Hi Patrick, I went back and looked at the data going back to 2000. ...

John Pitera — 4/13/2013 8:09:40 PM

Hi Patrick, I went back and looked at the data going back to 2000. There actually, was one other time since 2001 that Gold made lower low than during the previous year . Gold ended 2007 around 775 or 780 and slipped all the way back to 681 on a single day in Oct but that was during the Great Financial Crisis. The Biggest Global Crisis in our Lifetimes.

I was looking with a investment buddy at a very interesting chart which shows the correlation between the spread of the 2 and 10 year note and then does an overlay against the SPX........ It is showing the biggest negative correlation that it ever has....... We are not sure what it means but, we are seeing a number of very unusual things going on.......

John

[Patrick Slevin] Yes, on a Gold thread (Facebook) the natives are restless. I don't think I was...

Patrick Slevin — 4/13/2013 9:41:42 AM

Yes, on a Gold thread (Facebook) the natives are restless.

I don't think I was very popular when I mentioned that the 1530 area must hold, considering that represented a Triple Bottom over the past couple of years.

This is the first year, if I recall my data correctly, that Gold has traded below a prior year Low since 2001. Became very ugly in the aftermarket yesterday.

[John Pitera] To: Yorikke who wrote (13977) 4/4/2013 1:59:05 AM From: John Pitera of 13982 ...

John Pitera — 4/4/2013 2:14:48 AM

To: Yorikke who wrote (13977)	4/4/2013 1:59:05 AM
From: John Pitera	of 13982

Hi Y, here is a chart........gold is in a very interesting and fairly complicated pattern.....it has many elements of a market that is in a descending triangle which usually one of the most reliable chart patterns to which would suggest that we will break the horizontal baseline support and in that case a reasonable target for the ultimate end of the decline would be about $400 lower than 1923$ price top out in Sept of 2011 and these jagged lows in say thw 1528-1535 range....... the chart looks lousy and I would not be looking to buy this support but would be shorting it on a break 2 day close below $1500 andwondering what will be happening in the global economy if it goes down $400 bucks from here. The very deep momentum generated on the RSI on it's Feb 2013 decline almost mandates that this chart is going go break down and the price of gold denominated in USD is going lower. The XAU is down 50% and is showing a double momentum buy signal, but a quarter of those companies are on the financial rocks....... if gold breaks down and we see a meaningful decline, then I do not know how you can say that TA is Nonsense. Our FED and the Central Banks of the world have driven us off into fantasy worlds........ but I would not throw the baby out with the bathwater......... Interesteing the XAU..... which is down from 228 to 128...... that chart is actually showig a double momentum buy divergence...... but remember its for the companies that staty in business.... John PS constance brown has written an excellent book on TA that has been updated in 2012.....she has a very interesting of using a methodology of using specific ema averages overlaid on the RSI and I believe she's on to something good. I hope to discuss her methodology..... and maybe generate a few books sales for her sometime soon. John

[John Pitera] btw you are basically stalking me ....... come out of the darkness...... it;s ...

John Pitera — 4/3/2013 2:51:07 AM

btw you are basically stalking me ....... come out of the darkness...... it;s obvious to me that as long time SI participants know.....they ended up with 4 accounts due to SI miscues back around the millenium.

You have another account ...........or 3 other accounts that you use to manipulate cross postings...............

i would be tremendously blessed if you never ......ever send me another post again.

John

[John Pitera] so just put your money in swiss francs....... what kind of brillant chess foray ...

John Pitera — 4/3/2013 2:44:56 AM

so just put your money in swiss francs....... what kind of brillant chess foray do you have to tell us why that is a lousy place to put your money.......

you are a bottom of the barrel malcontent...... I'm sorry that mommy did not breast feed you.

i would enjoy hearing about your recommended method of making "Malotav cocktails"

[selivanov] Here is John Pitera's "absolutely amazing innovation": The "safest" banks in th...

selivanov — 4/2/2013 10:49:47 PM

Here is John Pitera's "absolutely amazing innovation": The "safest" banks in the world in Kanada are telling you right in Pitera's pie hole that they plan to steal all your money:

budget.gc.ca

From page 145 of the recent budget (see link):

"The Government proposes to implement a "bail-in" regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital. This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada. Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected institutions, investors and other market participants."

[Jorj X Mckie] Hey John, thank you...I'll take that as a compliment. I think what we are seein...

Jorj X Mckie — 4/1/2013 2:58:27 AM

Hey John,
thank you...I'll take that as a compliment.

I think what we are seeing is definitely a manifestation of the mass market psychology.

Lots of negative sentiment out there that is truly illustrated best by what Slevin observed. Here we are on a investing and trading website and most of the time we are talking about personal lives and politics. I think that some of that is simply what is most important to us, but I think that a fair amount is inactivity with trading and investing.

We've got a big wall of worry and I think that we are in the process of putting in a solid foundation for the equity market. And the fact that nobody is talking about upside tends to make me believe that we are getting ready for a significant cyclical bull market.

My own personal belief is that politics will have a big impact on what happens in the equity and RE markets. We are at the beginning of Obama's second term. I do believe that there are some things that have to be wrung out in both markets. The shadow inventory of bank owned real estate has to be dealt with eventually. If I were the party in power, I wouldn't want to leave this to chance. I believe that another RE crash as that shadow inventory is liquidated will happen this year. I believe that we are going to see a run up into the summer and then a selloff in the autumn and into 2014. Why and how? The why is easy. A crash now that is followed by a recovery will be good for the democrat party. Assuming a recovery, nobody will remember the crash in 2016. Almost guarantees re-election. How? I'm not smart enough to know that. But I believe that the federal government can definitely tweak the market in such a way as to precipitate the action. Some sort of incentive for the banks to get rid of inventory. Probably something that you know more about than I.

[John Pitera] Hi Tom, you are a tremendously gifted writer and generator of very thoughtful an...

John Pitera — 4/1/2013 2:42:20 AM

Hi Tom, you are a tremendously gifted writer and generator of very thoughtful and articuate observations on on Life..... yes the Market is the theoretical Sun that we all gravitate arround but so much of Silicon Investor's
power and "Value Proposition" is that it has generated such far reaching discussions on all aspects of humanity.

One of the things that I have always admired about you is that in so many posts you are able to recreate an Ernest Heminway style of discussing a subject / topic that is #1 honest, # 2 not verbose and # 3 is written in a very direct concise way that it makes for compelling reading....... but is also "honest"
I saw Patrick Slevin asking about threads that where engaged in actual technical analysis and that is a very reasonable request on a site which is a site on financial investments.

One of the things that I feel so important is to have a time capsule that provides vivid illustration of the the mood of mass psychology that exists as we move through these asset class cycles and market machinations.

As I am a firm believer that mass psychology is the primary driver of all markets.

John

[Jorj X Mckie] actually, this thread was started by OMG after I decided to take a break from ho...

Jorj X Mckie — 3/30/2013 1:39:40 AM

actually, this thread was started by OMG after I decided to take a break from hosting threads for a while.

I think part of it was that there was a bit of tension between a couple of posters (including myself) on one of my threads. It was just easier to back away for a while.

As far as my threads go, yes, I have had a tradition of running them up and then when my mood changes i start a new thread. I have no idea how long Busab will last, but I am not anywhere near the mood required to change it.

It's actually a very impulsive thing. All emotion and no logic. I couldn't give a definitive reason why I shut down threads and start new ones. it just feels like the right thing to do at the time.

[Patrick Slevin] The set up is there, the trade needs a trigger.

Patrick Slevin — 3/29/2013 9:16:19 AM

[John Pitera] Hi Patrick, the dividend yield is also creeping down to 1% and that has correspo...

John Pitera — 3/28/2013 11:42:00 PM

Hi Patrick, the dividend yield is also creeping down to 1% and that has corresponded to the major tops we saw in 2000 and 2007.......

the stock market is on a sugar high....... and dysfunctionality in aspects of the credit markets and the FX markets signal that these are the those bubbly topping times that we witness .... the US equities have 4 times the downside that they have to the upside over the next 14 months.

John

[John Pitera] Hi Patrick, thanks for asking and the answer is yes it has been a bit of a tough...

John Pitera — 3/28/2013 9:40:44 PM

Hi Patrick, thanks for asking and the answer is yes it has been a bit of a tough patch and I'm seeing how it all comes together.

Billy Mack that detective down in Texas............... don't you know he knows just what the facts is....... I think he's still hot on my trail ;-)

John

[Patrick Slevin] So, has everything been okay for you? Things were a tad rough, for awhile, no?

Patrick Slevin — 3/24/2013 9:10:21 AM

[Patrick Slevin] There is an extreme negative position established by the Commercials in the Futu...

Patrick Slevin — 3/24/2013 8:55:21 AM

There is an extreme negative position established by the Commercials in the Futures Market, and a corresponding mirror position by "Large Specs", or Funds.

The implication is that Funds are at the extreme of Buying power. Markets do not turn lower simply because of these opposing positions, but as a rule it would be wise to get stops in tight if Long.

[John Pitera] Hi Patrick, I believe this is one of the threads that Jorj has established......

John Pitera — 3/24/2013 1:41:00 AM

Hi Patrick, I believe this is one of the threads that Jorj has established........ he has thread that are almost aking to the sporting goods story that was story line about midway through the HBO "Soprano's run" where they build up a thread and then blow out it's credit lines and ultimately torch the business..... similar to GoodFellla's....

I would defer to him to give a difinitive answer..... but my impression is that it is something along those lines.....

I would be curious to here Tom's response.............but I get the feeling that each thread gets a season....just like in baseball or football and then......... we have a different one for the following season.

John

[Fiscally Conservative] Dead is my confidence in this market. Some here on SI are predicting huge runs ...

Fiscally Conservative — 3/21/2013 8:02:47 PM

Dead is my confidence in this market. Some here on SI are predicting huge runs in the next year or two. Not I ;)

[Patrick Slevin] Wow, this thread is dead. What are we doing here? Have I returned just to find ...

Patrick Slevin — 3/21/2013 7:36:21 PM

Wow, this thread is dead.

What are we doing here? Have I returned just to find that the juices of inspiration have dried up?

[John Pitera] and yes we were corresponding within hours.... sometimes minutes via text.....th...

John Pitera — 11/20/2012 3:34:54 AM

and yes we were corresponding within hours.... sometimes minutes via text.....that was until you displayed your tell that you don't have a big backup generator..... and were commenting that your phone was running low on power.

You were on my email list a few days ago, but it's been a busy time with a confluence of "inbox" items to deal with.

my LG G2x can be a real energy hog...... just happy to typically be able to juice it back up.

John

[Patrick Slevin] Okay, just responded with a text. I suppose I'll hear back from you in six mont...

Patrick Slevin — 11/8/2012 11:09:18 PM

Okay, just responded with a text.

I suppose I'll hear back from you in six months or so?

Yes, the Mendham water is good but....

eh, just nothing funny to say about water in Jersey at the moment.

[John Pitera] Hey Patrick, my man, yes we need to get our response turn around time t...

John Pitera — 7/25/2012 6:01:58 AM

Hey Patrick,

my man, yes we need to get our response turn around time to fit more closely to our smart phone age.!!!

I'll send you my phone number for text messaging..... purposes...... and those ambiguous midnight rambles.....

I'm still missing that Jersey Acqifer water that you can get in Mendham and Brookside New Jersey......as well as other places!!!!!!!!!!!!

John

[Patrick Slevin] Well, stay in touch. It seems a lot of SI guys are gone from the older days. I...

Patrick Slevin — 12/11/2011 9:19:23 PM

Well, stay in touch.

It seems a lot of SI guys are gone from the older days. I still chat with Zero now and then on FB. I can't keep up with SI though.

I'll be at the New York Expo in February. See if you can get there. I have a plan to be at the NYAC and if we can hook up I'll drag you over there for lunch or whatever.

Else, I'll get you my e-mail and we'll bump heads here and there as Life goes on, what say you?

[John Pitera] Hi Patrick, I think we needed to be playing 11 at the craps table on 11-11-11....

John Pitera — 11/14/2011 10:52:18 PM

Hi Patrick, I think we needed to be playing 11 at the craps table on 11-11-11.......but alas I am not at Bally's this week. However, I really should be.

John

[Patrick Slevin] You win, you have the last post Congrats. Whatcha doing this week? I'll be at ...

Patrick Slevin — 11/13/2011 11:31:30 PM

You win, you have the last post

Congrats.

Whatcha doing this week? I'll be at Bally's for the Expo; I think you may be as well, hope you get this in time.