Silicon Investor - Plug Power

[kphone] Why is Plug Power not active on SI ?

kphone — 12/27/2019 12:58:13 PM

[SI Ron (Crazy Music Man)] [X] #Plug Power $PLUG (+74.38%) A huge deal with Amazon could bring hundreds of...

SI Ron (Crazy Music Man) — 4/5/2017 2:40:53 PM

[X]

#Plug Power $PLUG (+74.38%) A huge deal with Amazon could bring hundreds of millions in revenue to Plug Power.https://t.co/K3BFPui2tc pic.twitter.com/g2ZdlgnlIG
— Silicon Investor (@Si_Investor) April 5, 2017

[/X]

[JakeStraw] Plug Power and Amazon Sign Agreement for Multi-Site GenKey Deployments finance.y...

JakeStraw — 4/5/2017 12:34:21 PM

Plug Power and Amazon Sign Agreement for Multi-Site GenKey Deployments
finance.yahoo.com

At select fulfillment center locations, Amazon will begin powering its industrial equipment such as forklifts using the GenKey technology which will enable faster charging times, reduced costs, and support energy-efficiency in Amazon’s fulfillment operations. Revenues associated with the commercial agreements are expected to be around $70 million in 2017.

Additionally, Amazon and Plug Power will begin working together on technology collaboration, exploring the expansion of applications for Plug Power’s line of ProGen fuel cell engines.

[NAG1] Disappointed in the quarterly numbers just reported. Accounting change affected ...

NAG1 — 5/11/2016 5:02:08 PM

Disappointed in the quarterly numbers just reported. Accounting change affected revenue numbers and wasn't adequately explained. Still with a large quarterly loss but it is getting smaller. Margins improving but not much. Salary structure too high for a company with PLUGs revenues. Sold half of my small position earlier this week. They burned up some credibility with me this quarter.

[NAG1] News for Plug. New Customer in Europe markets.siliconinvestor.com Doesn't seem...

NAG1 — 11/19/2015 10:07:03 AM

News for Plug. New Customer in Europe

markets.siliconinvestor.com

Doesn't seem to be taking long for new customers to be lining up for PLUG products.

[more100] $PLUG Big short-squeeze always happen with unknown timing. Look $KBIO. Short-Sel...

more100 — 11/19/2015 7:55:00 AM

$PLUG Big short-squeeze always happen with unknown timing. Look $KBIO. Short-Sellers should cover nowadays.

[more100] $PLUG closed up 8.23 percent on Monday, October 19, 2015, on 1.89 times normal v...

more100 — 10/20/2015 6:22:05 AM

$PLUG closed up 8.23 percent on Monday, October 19, 2015, on 1.89 times normal volume. Its advance stalled at its 200 day moving average, an important long-term support / resistance line. Note that the stock is in overbought territory based on its Slow Stochastic indicator (14, 3, 3) -- sideways movement or a pullback should not be unexpected.

[NAG1] PLUG is on track revenue wise ih.advfn.com

NAG1 — 10/19/2015 7:41:42 AM

[NAG1] These are the numbers that I came up with for PLUG and post on IHUB siliconinve...

NAG1 — 8/30/2015 12:13:59 PM

These are the numbers that I came up with for PLUG and post on IHUB

siliconinvestor.com

They could be profitable next year. How much depends on new business and margins.

[NAG1] Reported nice numbers for the quarter in terms of revenues. Going to have at lea...

NAG1 — 8/6/2015 10:36:08 PM

Reported nice numbers for the quarter in terms of revenues. Going to have at least 30 million for the present quarter, which the CEO says he has in the bag. Problem as I see it is in the margins. If the margins continue to improve, with the improving numbers, they should be ok. Said that they will be close to break even at the end of this year. Margins will have to get a lot better for that, even if they make that 37 million that has been talked about getting them to the 100 million for the year. Also sounds like they have a nice backlog building up. Added over 50 million to the backlog this quarter.

Definitely one to hold for me at this point. I am not sure why the big negative reaction since they really didn't miss revenues by much and had a real nice growth rate. Probably because investors are in a show me mode and not believing the guidance. I think I will be adding here once the dust settles.

To me, it sounds like they are finally executing on their plans. We will see if they can do what they are saying they can do.

[NAG1] I think this article does a good job going over the positives and negatives with...

NAG1 — 7/31/2015 6:31:03 PM

I think this article does a good job going over the positives and negatives with PLUG

ophirgottlieb.tumblr.com

[NAG1] There can be a wide range of quality for the seeking alpha articles but it seems...

NAG1 — 7/30/2015 9:07:44 AM

There can be a wide range of quality for the seeking alpha articles but it seems that at least in numbers, PLUG is getting some attention.

seekingalpha.com

This article isn't necessarily positive because it questions about how the AL acquisition might hurt PLUG's cash position and short term parameters and I think it raises some important points. But I look at the recent insider buying as a positive here. I am going to guess that things will happen either this quarter or the next quarter from all the news that is flying around.

Good luck.

[NAG1] Some recent insider buying reuters.com

NAG1 — 7/25/2015 11:03:13 AM

[NAG1] Bought some plug and some January call options. If the growth that the CEO has p...

NAG1 — 7/23/2015 1:27:03 PM

Bought some plug and some January call options. If the growth that the CEO has predicted comes to pass, the stock should make significant progress from here. The big question is that the CEO has been wrong on his guidance before but it looks like he has reigned in his guesstimates and may be starting to try to under promise. I guess we will have to see if he will over deliver and make me some money here.

[Davy Crockett] nice 'pop' today up 11% on good volume

Davy Crockett — 11/3/2014 1:30:16 PM

[Davy Crockett] PLUG very interesting chart... I may scale in over the next few days.. FWIW

Davy Crockett — 10/30/2014 7:26:41 PM

[Dwayne Hines] What is moving this sector lately? Several good steps up.

Dwayne Hines — 6/19/2014 2:29:10 PM

[Davy Crockett] PLUG 18% move today on huge volume... nice :)

Davy Crockett — 6/18/2014 7:49:10 PM

[Davy Crockett] nice move today

Davy Crockett — 6/18/2014 12:17:48 AM

[Davy Crockett] Fuel cells look like they are ready to make a move... BLDP up 5% and PLUG up 4%+...

Davy Crockett — 6/17/2014 2:53:39 PM

Fuel cells look like they are ready to make a move...
BLDP up 5% and PLUG up 4%+
and FCEL up 3.8%
me thinks that fuel cells are poised to make a nascent move up

Hopefully they will follow the trajectory of the Solar stocks... for example the etf TAN is almost up 4% just today. Some double digit moves in the solar space today FWIW...

I've also read the stat's & it looks like there is a number of shorts in this stock... If it moves up, there will be a heck've of a lot of covering possibly leading to a massive short squeeze. Which will lead to a real 'POP' in this stock.

[Dwayne Hines] This is a good turn. And also am waiting for Bloom Energy to get their IPO goin...

Dwayne Hines — 5/28/2014 5:30:38 PM

This is a good turn. And also am waiting for Bloom Energy to get their IPO going. That will shut up the naysayers, I think.

[Davy Crockett] BLDP broke out of a wedge today. Adding fuel to PLUG & FCEL api.recognia.com

Davy Crockett — 5/28/2014 2:24:07 PM

[Davy Crockett] Great article! Thanks for posting it.

Davy Crockett — 5/22/2014 4:13:16 PM

[Dwayne Hines] Fortune Magazine had a great article on Fuel Cell industry, including FCEL and P...

Dwayne Hines — 5/22/2014 11:43:56 AM

Fortune Magazine had a great article on Fuel Cell industry, including FCEL and Plug
money.cnn.com

[Davy Crockett] Plug Power: A Look At The Future [graphic] ONeil Trader, ONeil Trader on Twitt...

Davy Crockett — 5/19/2014 9:36:50 PM

Plug Power: A Look At The Future

ONeil Trader, ONeil Trader on Twitter (194 clicks)
Growth, momentum, small-cap, mid-cap
Profile| Send Message| Follow (814)

May. 19, 2014 6:05 PM ET | 13 comments | About: PLUG, Includes: GEX, PBD, PBW, QCLN

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in PLUG over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

SummaryStrong bookings growth and FY 2014 and FY 2015 revenue expectations reveal Plug Power’s growth potential in the next few years.The company should achieve two thirds of this year’s bookings in the first two quarters, so there is potential for upside revisions in 2H 2014.The reward/risk ratio might be in favor of the bulls right now.
Plug Power ( PLUG) announced Q1 earnings last week that provided little excitement. The company reported mostly in line with expectations, while the full-year revenue guidance was above views and encouraging. In my previous article on Plug Power, I was fairly optimistic, but I also noted some uncertainties which make Plug Power a largely speculative play, which is not for the faint of heart. While I was mostly focusing on the downside potential in my previous article, this piece will be more focused on the potential upside (I still believe that the downside should be limited to a $3.00 to $3.50 price range).

Strong bookings growth and FY 2014 and FY 2015 revenue expectationsPlug Power management confirmed the year-to-date bookings of $80 million, and stated that the company should achieve two-thirds of full-year bookings by the end of Q2. The company is also targeting a significant announcement at the end of Q3. These growth trends and the pace of the execution point to potential upside for full-year bookings. The company has also raised FY 2014 revenue guidance from $70 million to $75 million, which was significantly ahead of analyst expectations for $65 million at the time (consensus has moved closer to management's target since the earnings announcement). Plug Power is also increasing its sales staff, and management has increased its 2015 target revenue from $100 million to $135 million for material handling.

As for the profitability, the company should achieve EBITDA breakeven in Q4, while the expected EBITDA loss should be between $0.5 million and $3 million. The ReliOn acquisition is expected to increase the EBITDA loss by $1 million this year, but should have a positive impact on gross margin in 2015 and beyond, as the acquisition provides Plug power with a second source supplier for fuel cell stack technology for its low-power products.

Potential for upside revisions going forwardThere are several factors that could push the current revenue consensus for 2014 and 2015 higher. The company is looking to expand in Europe and Asia. The Hyundai Hysco joint venture is expected to be established by the end of July 2014, and we should see a more significant impact on the top line growth in 2015. The increased sales force should also have a positive effect on the growth of the business.

Another possible source of upside revisions is the satisfaction of its customer base. Plug Power has about 20 customers, and 12-15 are repeat customers which are satisfied with the company's products. Two Wal-mart ( WMT) sites are scheduled to be brought online in Q3, which is ahead of the initial plan for one site in Q2. There may be other customers that might be willing to push up their orders, which might further boost Plug Power's bookings for the year.

On the other hand, Plug Power's CEO, Andrew Marsh, indicated on the Q1 conference call that they hired a new salesperson, who was working with one of the leading battery companies. He said that their sales pitch against Plug Power is that "they are going to run out of business." But given the recent stock offerings and a cash balance of $174 million, this argument now seems invalid and leaves the competition without an important argument to win business away from Plug Power. This fact, together with an increased sales force and geographic expansion should create an opportunity for faster execution and more business opportunities going forward.

Valuation and price targetPlug Power is currently trading at a TTM P/S ratio of 21. While this is a steep multiple, it is a reflection of strong growth expectations going forward. Forward 2014 and 2015 P/S ratios are 8.5 and 5.2 respectively. Since the company is still unprofitable, we should look at the forward valuation metrics to get a sense of the potential share price. Analysts expect the company to generate $0.02 earnings per share in 2015 and $0.14 and $0.22 in 2016 and 2017 (earnings per share data provided by Sentieo.com). Since the company is an early stage of its growth cycle, it is hard to put a price on its growth potential. I believe that there is upside potential north of 50% in 2014, as the company could easily trade at 30x its 2017 earnings, which translates into a price target of $6.60. And as I stated earlier, there is room for upside revisions, which might push the forward valuation lower and the upside potential higher. My price target is not far from Cowen's price target of $6. The firm upgraded Plug Power to outperform, although it lowered its PT from $7.5 to $6.

I previously stated that the downside should be limited to a price range of $3.00 to $3.50, which translates into 18% to 30% downside from the current price.

CatalystsCatalysts that could push Plug Power higher are:

New orders from major customers.Upside revenue guidance revisions.New analyst coverage and upgrades.ConclusionPlug Power is certainly not for the faint of heart. This is a highly speculative stock with significant potential upside and downside risks. Given my current expectations, the reward/risk seems in favor of the bulls, as the potential upside of 50% is higher than the 18% to 30% downside. I will be looking for signs of a sustainable bottom and may buy Plug Power in the next couple of weeks.

Davy

[Davy Crockett] I'm in PLUG as of yesterday near the close... FWIW Very volatile [graphic] h...

Davy Crockett — 5/16/2014 12:19:36 PM

I'm in PLUG as of yesterday near the close... FWIW

Very volatile

hopefully I won't jinx myself by 'plugging' in a chart.

[zax] This is one incredibly volatile stock! Personally, I've dabbled in a little FCE...

zax — 3/13/2014 10:31:59 AM

This is one incredibly volatile stock! Personally, I've dabbled in a little FCEL; have not touched PLUG.

I think value investors hate seeing stocks that move this quickly. This guy really tears into it. Its fascinating to watch these huge daily swings.

A Requiem For Plug-Mania

seekingalpha.com

[Daniel Schumacher] FCELL reported earnings in line with estimates.

Daniel Schumacher — 3/10/2014 11:46:53 PM

[Dwayne Hines] " REVENUES: PLUG 7 MIL BALLARD 15 M FCEL 45 MIL and they all have about th...

Dwayne Hines — 3/10/2014 7:19:07 PM

" REVENUES: PLUG 7 MIL BALLARD 15 M FCEL 45 MIL and they all have about the same
market cap meaning if FCEL had the same market cap as PLUG its stock price would be 18 +!

Cash on hand - PLUG = $10 million
FuelCell Energy = $105 million"