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This thread is a place where we Keep an eye on a few stocks and investment sector themes. I post some research articles that I may want to refer to later. One motivation for posting some of the material is to watch the cyclical patterns and evolution of the Investment mindset. It's interesting to see how Investment perceptions and outlooks change over time, both in regards to a specific stock; and entire market sectors. This extends also to Investing in Different Parts of the World and in different asset classes. I was just talking with Lee- L3 about Mark Mobius's Templeton China Fund (TCH) and I was noticing that since 1994, it's down from $20 to $7 today. I then glanced at SGF. The Singapore Investment Fund (SGF) also made it's all-time high in 1994 at $26 and is currently at $4.50 It reminded me of how eager Investors were to Invest in the Emerging Markets, especially the NIC's (Newly Industrialized Nations) of the Pacific Rim back in the late 1980's and the Early 1990's. Many will remember that both Japan and the Emerging Pac-Rim countries were thought to be driving the American business model out of business due to lack of U S companies to compete, in Global markets. Indeed, Harvard University, IBM, Exxon, GE and many other companies all had programs and seminars to study Japanese Management Skills, then thought to be vastly superior the US models. The Japanese Nikkei 225 average was at 7000 and change in 1982,but had climbed to 39,300 by dec 31st of 1989. No wonder almost everyone thought that the Japanese were going to take over the world, economically speaking. lowrisk.com "The Roaring 80's" by George Goodman, who writes under the nom de plume of Adam Smith, is excellent in capturing the dominant investment and economic - competitiveness thinking that existed back at the cusp of 1990's. In this 1989 book, Goodman outlines the vibrant economies of the Pac-Rim and pointed out that the issue was being raised, whether America would continue to be the significant economic force it had been in the Post World War II years. The Trading history of the Korea Fund (KF) illustrates the Investment boom years advancing from $4 in 1986 all the way to $40 in 1989. Then as the speculative era in the Pac Rim stocks unwound the price fell all the way to $6 in 1997, and is still under $10 today. The Japanese Bubble Burst in 1990 and the Global Flow of Funds began to shift in the early 1990's. European and especially the US Equity markets became increasingly attractive on a Global relative basis. The Emerging Market stocks hit a secondary peak in 1994, and then really fell of of a cliff starting in 1995. Obviously Investors had found Happier Hunting Grounds for their Global Equity Investments; and it's no coincidence at all that, the US StockMarket really began an acceleration of it's Multi-Year Bull Market in 1995. I mention this for two reasons, I'm doing some research this weekend and so this is fresh in my mind. And also, since it highlights a few of the things that we are reflecting on as we try to craft our longer term investment ideas. | ||||||||||||
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