The board will discuss aspects of the epic American credit and bond bubble and it's ramifications for investors. Emphasis will be on how to profit from (or at least survive) a bond bear market and/or a credit collapse. Basic entry prerequistes to take this lab: 1. the knowledge that bond prices move inversely to interest rates. 2. an understanding that bonds can lose value if credit conditions deteriorate.
Food for thought:
"A sound banker, alas, is not one who forsees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him".
- John Maynard Keynes
Lab tools:
Good glossary:
investinginbonds.com
Economic releases and data (NBER):
nber.org
Bankrate.com: various interest rates, charted:
bankrate.com
30yr Treasury/Vanguard High Yield Corp ratio to track credit spreads.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) quote:
futuresource.com
Treasury rates and Agency spreads:
gcm.com
Libor and Constant Maturity Treasury yields, use to price "house as ATM card" costs on Adjustable Rate Mortgages:
libor-loans.com
federalreserve.gov
Treasury Dept Auction Announcements and Results:
publicdebt.treas.gov
Key bubble related charts and graphics from the Hoisington Management presentation at Grant Conference, Nov. 13, 2003:
Message 19632973
Paul Kasreil's (Northern Trust) presentation "Inevitable Rebalancing of the US Economy". A must read.
northerntrust.com
Economic Policy Institute chart and synopsis of the degree foreign CBs "finance" US trade and debt imbalances.
epinet.org
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI):
businesscycle.com
Daily Treasury Statement; withholding tax receipts:
fms.treas.gov
Key measure of cheap loosey goosey easy credit to consumers; mortgage application index, purchase index, refi index, out every Wed. I'm looking for a chart/graphic:
mbaa.org
Rasmussen consumer and investor confidence, also daily Bush- Kerry polls:
rasmussenreports.com
TrimTabs (Charles Biderman) weekly liquidity report:
trimtabs.com
AMG mutual fund flows:
amgdata.com
Investment Institute, mutual fund cash levels come out end of month:
ici.org
Fed repurchase pool:
bullandbearwise.com
Fed permanent operations:
ny.frb.org
Some original thinking on how fed repos impact markets:
financialsense.com
St. Louis Fed data and updates: treasure trove:
research.stlouisfed.org
research.stlouisfed.org
Fed govt securities bought outright (monetized):
federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve flow of funds data:
federalreserve.gov
Foreign transactions in US securities (Updated on the 11th business day of each month, with a 1.5 month lag.) in 2005:
Jan 18, Feb 15, Mar 15, Apr 15, May 16, June 15, July 18, Aug 15, Sept 16, Oct 18, Nov 16 and Dec 15.
treas.gov
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
bea.doc.gov
Federal Reserve Economic Data: St. Louis Fed
research.stlouisfed.org
Tokyo-Mitsubishi economic and retail data:
btmna.com
Baltic freight index(BDIY):
quote.bloomberg.com
JOC-ECRI industrial commodities index:
joc.com
LME metal inventories, another good "maladjusted economy" indicator:
metalprices.com
Spectrum Commodites: one of best wealth of information sites on commodities markets. Education section is especially worthwhile:
spectrumcommodities.com
Coal prices:
eia.doe.gov
Bureau of Labor Statistics, general:
bls.gov
Bureau of Labor Statistics, with focus on food and energy inflation:
data.bls.gov
Life in the trenches with purchasing managers (Purchasing.com):
manufacturing.net
Fed fund forwards, implied rates:
trendmacro.com
Committment of traders (COT) reports:
64.82.65.31
Prudent Bear commentaries; key on Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin (updated weekends), Marshall Auerback, and Richard Duncan:
prudentbear.com
Financial Sense Online (Jim Puplava), some very good weekend interviews and links to other sites:
netcastdaily.com
Excellent commentary and graphics from Contrary Investor:
contraryinvestor.com
Sage Capital:
sagecapital.com
Bill Fleckenstein:
moneycentral.msn.com
Bank Credit Analyst:
bcaresearch.com
Futures market quotes:
sites2.barchart.com
My Inflation Train Wreck Essay:
financialsense.com
Ild's charts and graphs:
idorfman.com
Jesse's charts (very good chart collection and comments, intervention meter, etc):
geocities.com
2004-05 Winter Energy Train Wreck Watch:
Accuweather:http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=accuweather |
