Biogen successfully made the transition from a licensing company to a company that manufacturers and markets its own products.
Its Avonex treatment for multiple sclerosis is now the world-wide standard of care, but sales have now plateaued in the face of new competition from Serono.
The company's psoraiasis treatment, Amevive, may generate $200MM-$300MM in revenue but will face intense competition from other treatments - most significantly, Amgen's Enbrel which has shown superior efficacy (although long-term safety has yet to be shown.)
The most significant short-term driver will be Antegren trial results for Crohn's disease and MS. Antegren is a partnered drug and both Elan and Biogen have agreed to share revenues and expenses equally. Antegren's PII data for MS looks compelling enough for some to call it the next treatment wave - possibly superceding interferon treatments or possibly being used in conjunction with interferon treatments. PIII Crohn's data should be out in Q2 or Q3, 2003. MS data should follow in early 2005. All trials are fully enrolled as of end of year 2002.
The company is conservatively managed, is underaggressive on the acquisition front, and has tremendous financials.
Opinions, information and questions are welcome. |
