***** Technical Analysis (for January 23)*****
The markets finally bounced up after 5 consecutive down days for the major indices and a follow-through rally early Friday morning is likely. The market internals will provide a clue as to whether Friday will end up being a rally day or if this bounce will be quite ephemeral. The Dow did hold support near 8250 today.
The Nasdaq TRIN was a very positive .34, with a/d of 18/13, up/down volume 4/1, indicating strong accumulation, on light volume of 1.6B shares. The MACD, DMI (ADX), Money Flow and Acc/Dist remained negative while the Williams%R and CCI are neutral. The RSI rose to 48.2 and the 200/50 dma are at 1418/1403.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to -15 while the 10% index is below the 5% and the zero line. The weekly stochastic is 67% and improved to going sideways, uncrossed.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a mildly positive .85, with a/d of 5/3, up/down volume of 2/1, on moderate volume of 1.7B shares. The McClellan Oscillator improved to -28 and its 10% index is still giving a negative reading.
The VIX MACD remains crossed up, a bearish sign, and the VXN MACD is neutral, uncrossed. The put/call ratio dropped to .68 and its MACD is negative.
The odds do not favor a strong rally from here, but even a strong rally would probably fail to take out 8600 resistance, let alone 8770, and if it does not, then we should see 8250 be broken to the downside in the next two weeks. The Nasdaq did not get very close to 1327 support this week and that will be the next first line of support when the rally fails.
The March U.S. dollar broke 100, and psychologically that is quite bearish, even if it can bounce above it on Friday, as it is a lower low, and sets up 98 as the next target support level in the weeks to come.
Conversely, spot/comex gold rallied to as high as 368 and then had to settle for 364, which is above the 363 open. With 359 resistance being taken out this week, the next level to have resistance is probably around 375. Gold stocks are mostly crossed up or going up.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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