***** Technical Analysis (for January 29)*****
The market enjoyed a firm close for the second day in a row as it reversed a decline in the morning. The Dow closed up 22 points to just above 8100 after having been down well over 100 points, but will find resistance at 8250. The Nasdaq rose 16 points to 1358 and will find resitance near 1380.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a very positive .46, with a/d of 1/1 (mediocre breadth), up/down volume 2/1, on light volume of 1.5B shares. The RSI rose to 45, while the MACD, DMI, ADX, Money Flow and Acc/Dist remained negative. The volatile Williams%R and CCI improved to neutral/slightly negative. The Aroon remained neutral.
The McClellan Oscillator rose to -23 while the 10% index is still quite negative, below 5% index and zero line. The weekly stochastic is at 60% crossed down, daily 25% crossed down, and hourly 89% crossed up, so we may be nearing another top in the next day or two.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a neutral .89, with a/d of 9/7, up/down volume 3/2, on moderately light volume of 1.6B shares. The Dow weekly stochastic is 49% crossed down, daily is 17% crossed down, and hourly 79% crossed up. The McClellan Oscillator rose to -36, but the 10% index is below the 5% one.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are still crossed up. The put/call ratio rose to .81 but its MACD is still giving a negative reading. Advisors are still too bullish.
The market is apparently having a mediocre technical bounce now and could run out of steam at any time now. The risk is to the downside, not the upside, according to the weekly stochastics, Summation Index, ADX and MACD. And once this technical rally falters, the recent lows should get taken out in February.
Gold fell 3 today to 366 and needs to hold support at 359 in order to remain bullish technically. Last weekend spot gold went as high as 379, and that level should be retested this month. The U.S. dollar can't seem to get much of a technical rally and will have probably another large move down in the first quarter.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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