***** Technical Analysis (January 2)****
The first day of trading saw a mixed bag with the Nasdaq outperforming the blue chips as measured by the Dow.
The technical condition of the Nasdaq has improved as it tries to catch up to the very positive technical condition of the NYSE, Dow and S&P 500.
The Nasdaq Williams%R, DMI (ADX), CCI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist are are decidedly positive while the Aroon is mildly positive, and the RSI is at 62. The volume today, Friday, was only 1.7B on the Nasdaq with a/d of 3/2 and u/d volume of 12/5, thereby making a TRIN of .60.
The stochastics and McClellan Oscillator/Summation Indexes are positive, so declines now may turn out to be only pullbacks and minor corrections in the short to short-intermediate term.
The Dow now appears likely to break above the 10,300-10,500 projected target, in the first quarter, and could possibly rally towards or to 11,000, while the Nasdaq may test the prior high of 2098.
Gold has appears due for a pullback to at least $400/oz., but the USD has been so weak that it hasn't occurred. The USD has been overdue for a technical bounce/rally from the 88-89 level in the futures pits but instead has declined to the 87's. A technical bounce to 89-90 is still possible in the first quarter and then it could decline to the 80-82 level afterwards.
Bonds remain weak and could decline further in 2004, with the 10 year note yield rising to 5%, with not much room for the note itself to rally or for the yield to go much lower than 4.2% on any technical retracements.
Energy complex appears to be in a high range now, perhaps crude between $28-$34/barrel, and natural gas 5 1/2 to 7, both appearing to be in secular bull markets along with gold/silver.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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