***** Technical Analysis (for October 14)*****
The Columbus day holiday is a quasi-holiday, but enough of one to bring down the overall volume. Stocks were modestly higher as the market internals were unimpressive as the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 digested their gains from the past two strong rally days.
The Dow got as high as 7915 and that level should be taken out Tuesday or Wednesday, barring some major negative news, earnings or otherwise. The Dow has resistance at 8000 and could take it out on the way to the next resistance level near 8250, while the Nasdaq resistance at 1220 was reached today, closing there so the index should rally towards the next level of resistance at 1270, and then 1320 if volume can expand.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .63, with a/d of 16/15, up/down volume 7/4, on 1.2B shares. The MACD continues to improve its positive reading while the Williams%R remains positive as well. The DMI (ADX) improved to neutral as did the Acc/Dist. The CCI also is neutral while the Aroon remains negative. The RSI rose to 51.3.
The Nasdaq is above its hourly and 10 day moving averages but below its 50 dma at 1267. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to +8, with the 10% index above the 5% one but still below the zero line. The weekly and daily stochastics are going up though the hourly is high.
The NYSE TRIN is at .79, with a/d of 16/15, up/down volume 7/4, on 1.2B shares, as for one of the rare times, both the Nasdaq and NYSE internals were identical for all intents and purposes. The Dow weekly stochastic is 21% sideways while the daily is 59% going up, just like the dailies on the Nasdaq. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator rose to -6 with its 10% index above its 5% one too.
The VIX/VXN were barely changed at 42.6/59, respectively. The CBOE put/call ratio was unchanged at .93. The Investors Intelligence bullish advisors sunk to 31% while the bearish ones rose to 39%, a positive development, perhaps signalling more upside for now.
The Nasdaq's slow and fast stochastics indicate a little more upside action, and then the true test will come. If the internals and indicators can gather positive momentum, then the rally can extend more than a few more days and not be very choppy. Thus, the action on Tuesday and Wednesday could provide crucial signals for the next major move, or they might just signal sideways choppy action, which would likely lead to another downdraft after the toppy action.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
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