***** Technical Analysis (October 15)****
A bearish reversal from the gap opening implies a lower early morning on Thursday. During the pre-market and first half hour, the indices rallied but then couldn't hold the gains or the positive market internals in the second half hour, as the up/down volume narrowed quickly and weakened the next two hours.
The reversal weakened the technical indicators which are still mostly positive so the action of the next couple of days should provide the direction because either this decline is part of a resetting or is the start of a larger decline.
The market had a great chance to power ahead today but the volume dropped off late in the first hour and profit-takers and sellers stopped the rally.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a mildly positive .76, which is more a reflection of the up/down volume of 9/10 not being as negative as the a/d of 13/18, rather than reflecting accumulation. On the other hand, there was not serious distribution for this index.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator declined to +15 and bulls need it to stay above the zero line. The 10% index is above the 5% one.
The NYSE TRIN was a mildly negative 1.10, with a/d of 12/19, up/down volume of 5/9, on 1.46B shares. The McClellan Oscillator dropped to +12 from +33, and it is still on the major move signal from Tuesday.
The Nasdaq technical indicators did not change but the bearish reversal is obviously technically negative for the near term. After some weakness expected Thursday, the dip-buyers will be needed by Friday or Monday in order to prevent a larger decline.
The overall trend for the intermediate or short-intermediate term may still be up, and it is until proven otherwise.
The Nasdaq may have strong support at the middle Bollinger band at 1877 after psychological support at 1900. Bears may like the gap at 1842.
The bond market was weak today while the gold market was basically flat. Crude was little changed and the energy complex was flat.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
