***** Technical Analysis (for October 16)*****
The markets opened sharply lower and then traded down towards the Nasdaq gap at 1221, missing it by 8 points, while the Dow had profit-taking as well after the 3 strong rally days.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a very negative 3.56, but on volume of only 1.6B shares, so it might indicate that the index could get a bounce early Thursday. The a/d was improved from earlier levels at 13/20 and up/down volume was 1/6. The RSI dropped to 51.9.
The MACD, CCI and DMI (ADX) remained positive while the Williams%R and Acc/Dist worsened to neutral. The Money Flow and Aroon remained negative. The McClellan Oscillator dropped to +26, and its 10% index remains above the 5% one but is below the zero line. The weekly and daily stochastics remain crossed up but the weekly is barely crossed and the hourly is crossed down now.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.82, with a/d of 1/3, up/down volume of 1/6, on only 1.5B shares. The Dow stochastics are very similar to the Nasdaq's. The McClellan Oscillator declined to -3 and its 10% index is worse than on the Nasdaq.
The VIX rose to 41.9 while the VXN was virtually unchanged and their MACD's continue to be crossed down, thereby not signalling a bearish reversal yet. The put/call ratio rose to 1.25 and its 50 dma rose to .87, the highest reading in many months.
The Nasdaq has another gap below at 1166 and a failure to rise and close above 1300 would be a negative harbinger. The Dow needs to close above the psychological support level of 8000 but it is expected that the index will ultimately at least retest the prior lows near 7200.
A choppy and rangebound market may occur with occasional declines as the downtrend has not been reversed yet. A failure by the Dow to take out the recent highs near 8250 would be very negative. That 8250 level had been considered resistance after 8000, and thus far that has been the high.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position, swing, and daytrading.
Information on his TA classes are now available at www.Stocktimers.com.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting starts off in the private chat room, and then usually goes into the regular rooms for more capacity. Just Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
