***** Technical Analysis (October 16)****
Economic news continues to be fairly positive and while the market experienced early weakness today in a mild follow-through of yesterday's technical decline, the internals were stronger than the indices all day.
The TRINs were .88/.86 for the Nasdaq/NYSE, respectively. The Nasdaq a/d was 18/13, up/down volume 22/13, indicating mild accumulation, on moderate volume of 1.8B shares.
The Nasdaq indicators remained the same except the Aroon which became more positive. The RSI was little changed at 65 while the McClellan Oscillator changed by only 3 to +18, signalling a possible major move within 4 sessions.
The NYSE Oscillator also changed by only 3 to +15, so it has made two straight signals within 2 days, for a major move.
The stochastics remain positive in their "pop." Even the ROC has improved.
The sentiment indicators are mixed with the VIX/VXN MACDs clearly crossed down, which is positive.
Except for the Dow, all the other indexes were up, with some of them at new recovery closing highs. The market has been choppy of late, and the rallies have occurred without heavy volume or 3-5 days up in a row.
The gold stocks rallied modestly while spot gold was basically flat as bargain hunters pick off some shares long but is still at risk of falling further. Bonds were down slightly as rates continue to rise. Investors may continue to move moneys away from gold stocks and bonds, and into growth and cyclical stocks. Crude oil was down just a bit but appears to be in a high trading range between the mid-20's to the mid-30's.
The bottom line for the stock market is that it wouldn't take much to rally the Dow to or above 10,000 and above Nasdaq 2,000 towards 2098 retest. It might take a shocking event or news to collapse this market and pullbacks appear to be contained before severe technical damage.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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