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Never heard of the Free Float?
I have since joining SI almost five years ago been the only practioner, that I've ever run into, who relies exclusively on the metric of the free float as a primary discriminator in constructing trading and investing portfolios. The portfolio SIP1 has been made a private portfolio available to subscribers. SIP1 is but one of three SIP portfolios, the other portfolios are development portfolios whose issues will move onto the active portfolio as stock signals & current trajectories warrant. The goal of the portfolio is to multiply units owned over time. Each stock is selected for the probability of a stock split in the current trading cycle The avg holding period is over 1 year, but asset allocation methods are constantly applied to any open position.
All Stocks should if they've been selected correctly move toward a liquidity creation event.
"All action happens against the float", for me, this captures the essential character of tradeing in a Supply demand market. If a stock on this list is assaulted by decisions of management that stock would be removed.
Devising strategies and tactics that capture the opportunity of making money is wholly linked to the current trend of the business cycle on a company by company basis.
Fundamentals combined with rapid asset allocation movements determine where assets in a current trend should be placed. Recognizing the current state of any given security against others in a portfolio is key. All Action happens in the passing of time where a companies current state will dictate it's impending state those states are Accumulation, Distribution, Obfuscation or Neutral.
This Portfolio is designed to focus ones attention on the Trees, not the forest.
As a Student of Systems I try to find the Hand of man;
Von Mises teaches us that "All Economics is rooted in Human Action," he calls this the science of Praxeology.
mises.org
He talks about the impossibility of econometrics, he surmises; rightfully that no statistics can measure the future impact of the hand of man; his needs wants and desires and ultimately his choices.
In our time; economists attempt to model everything; with the goal to frame a statistical foundation for whatever surmise their efforts endow.
Von Mises teaches us the Acting Man capitulates to no predictive models; and that the appearance that he does, is always temporary.
Knowing this has led me to the conclusion that those who see the markets as a system within systems, using Supply and demand as a base line, protects you not from the outright fabrication of price action over time, but provides the understanding that price may be an artifact of a system in action.
Where the Hand of man is revealed, within any system, reveals much to us, causative though it seems, it is all quite related to a given time lines influences.
An Attempt, if you will, to construct favorable effects to meet systems ends. The essence of Systems is captured in a tract from John Galls seminal book SYSTEMANTICS. A key piece of debugging any system is the following tracts;
As a student of Systems; I became a believer in the following description of all systems, as was presented in a book called SYSTEMANTICS by John Gall; it goes like this; Inside Systems pg 48 & 49
Corollary #1
All systems are only as good as their sensory Organs.
A System is no Better than its sensory organs
Corollary #2
To those within a system, outside reality tends to pale and disappear;
In an effort to introduce quantitative methodology into this important area of research a group of dedicated systemologists has paid particular attention to the amount of information that reaches, or fails to reach the relevant systems administrators also classified as Control Units (CU) of the system.
The crucial variable they have found is the fraction Ro/Rs where Ro equals the amount of reality which fails to reach the control unit. And Rs equals the total amount of reality presented to the system.
The fraction Ro/Rs varies from 0 (full awareness of outside reality) to unity ( no reality getting through) It is known naturally enough, as the COEFFICIENT OF FICTION (CF)
Positive Feedback (P.F. )obviously competes with reality R for input into the system. The higher the PF the larger the quantity of reality which fails to gain entrance into the system Ro, and thus the higher the resulting CF. In systems employing PF; values of CF in excess of 0.99 have been recorded. Examples include evangelistic religious movements, certain authoritarian government systems and the executive suits of some very large corporations.
The bigger the System, the narrower and more specialized the interface with individuals…. End of Gall tracts
This little diversion about going Inside systems links nicely with our own development of the Obfuscation metric as applied to the System that is wall street, and the media which is but a sensory output organ of the system. |
