***** Technical Analysis (for October 3)*****
A rather dull day today followed eight triple digit moves in a row. The Nasdaq was down the most percentage-wise and closed at its lowest level in many years and seems to be confirming the triangle formation.
The Dow has failed to break above the resistance level of 8000 the last two times, and needs to prove it can do so quickly to prevent another downdraft. The S&P 500 has held up above 775 but now is only two to three down days away from it.
Thursday the Nasdaq TRIN was a negative 1.86, with a/d of 13/18, up/down volume 4/11, on light volume of 1.65B shares. The MACD, Williams%R, DMI (ADX), Money Flow, Acc/Dist and Aroon remained negative while the CCI worsened to negative. The RSI dropped to 37.2.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped two points to -19, thereby signalling a large move within four sessions. The 10% index is below the 5% one and it is fairly extreme. The Summation Index is -854 as it seems headed for -1000 again.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.40, with a/d of 13/18, up/down volume 1/2, on 1.65B shares. The a/d line for the NYSE has had a double top formation thus far from August and September tops. The McClellan Oscillator is -19 and its 10% index is below its 5% one. The Dow monthly stochastic is 6% going down so there is room to get more oversold.
The VIX/VXN were little changed at 44.9/58.2, respectively. The put/call ratio rose to 1.04 but its MACD is still neutral to slightly negative. The advisors are 42% bullish vs. 34% bearish from Investors Intelligence.
The labor data tomorrow could set the tone for tomorrow's action but the downtrend appears intact for at least a retest of the lows. Watch the market internals closely, especially the up/down volume.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
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