***** Technical Analysis (for October 31)*****
Another choppy session found the markets mixed by the end as the Dow and NYSE were weaker than the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 was pretty flat. The market rally is looking tired and the Nasdaq had a chance to rally strongly and bring the other indices up with it when the up/down volume was very positive after the mid-point of the session, but then weakened in the last hour.
The NYSE had weaker market internals than the Nasdaq all day and the Dow was lagging as well. The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .64, with a/d of 17/15, up/down volume 5/3, on moderately light volume of 1.8B shares. The MACD is slowly weakening in positive territory. The Williams%R, Money Flow, Acc/Dist and Aroon remain quite positive while the CCI is positive but has never gotten strongly positive and the CCI remains neutral, perhaps a harbinger of things to come. The RSI was little changed at 59.5.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped to +47, while its 10% index remains strongly positive. The daily stochastic remains toppy and the hourly is crossed down.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.60, with a/d of 9/7, up/down volume was negative at 3/4, indicating some distribution, and volume was 1.5B shares. The Dow daily stochastic is also looking toppy with "d" and "k" going sideways at very high levels. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +34 due to the positive a/d.
The VIX/VXN were little changed as was the put/call ratio. The advisors are 38% bullish vs. 35% bearish from Investors Intelligence.
The market appears vulnerable to a decline now and then we shall see if it can muster up another rally. While the media analysts are touting a strong November, December and January due to favorable seasonality, a structured approach indicates that November could be rather weak.
Daytraders and swing traders can watch the direction of the market internals along with the futures to gauge the strongest trend during the 3 phases of trading each day.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position, swing, and daytrading.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting starts off in the private chat room, and then usually goes into the regular rooms for more capacity. Just Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
