Weather forecasts break down beyond 5 days, and low-frequency variability plays a major role. Low-frequency patterns fluctuate with periods of 10-days to multiple years. Seasons are dictated by low-frequency patterns, and these patterns are inter-related with the jet stream.
What is a low-frequency pattern? Those in Europe are familiar with the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. For those in U.S., the "polar vortex" pattern the winter of early 2014. These are sub-seasonal patterns, with periods < 90 days. El Nino is a low-frequency ocean pattern, where the Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric counter-part with periods of 2-7 years.
IMO, the solar wind plays a key role in dictating the development of low-frequency patterns and as well as certain extreme weather events that transition low-frequency patterns. That's a doozy of a statement! |
