***** Technical Analysis (for November 21)*****
Some bulls celebrated today's heavy volume rally by declaring that the bear market is over. Obviously that is premature. The Dow closed above resistance of 8770 and now 9077 should be the minimum expectation after a brief dip early tomorrow. The Nasdaq took out 1426 with a vengeance and the next resistance level is 1568, a previous high. The S&P500 lagged today.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a very positive .24, with a/d of 11/5 again, up/down volume 8/1, on heavy volume of 2.4B shares. The MACD and CCI improved to join the other indicators in being positive, but the rate of change remained negative and the OBV turned negative. The RSI rose to 66.4 as it approaches the important 70 level.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to +36, which is still a distance away from the prior recovery high of 69.1, but the index could still manage a few more rally days. The daily stochastic is 99% as are the weekly and hourly.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a very positive .51, with a/d of 11/5, up/down volume 9/2, on heavy volume of 2.0B shares. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +44. The daily and hourly stochastics are at 98%.
The SPX has lagged conspicuously as it closed at 933, a farther distance than the Dow from its August high of 975. The Nasdaq now has a gap below at 1419.
The heavy volume today implies more upside action in the next day or two, or longer, after a likely dip in the morning. This rally has made the major indices parabolic from their moving averages, so at least a correction or dip is likely on Friday morning. But by the last hour or next Monday, the markets could be rallying once more, in borrowed time from the bears.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position, swing, and daytrading.
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