***** Technical Analysis (for November 25)*****
The major indices rode another roller coaster ride, but ended the day up as expected after the inability of the sellers last week to gain control of the trend and dip-buyers keep coming into the market. Historically this week of Thanksgiving is usually up, and it may be so again.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .54, with a/d of 20/13, up/down volume was better at 7/2, indicating modest accumulation on 1.95B shares, which is moderate. The MACD became more positive as did the Williams%R, CCI, DMI (ADX), Money Flow and Acc/Dist. The rate of change and OBV are considered negative in their readings, however, and if they continue those readings, they will be vindicated.
The RSI rose to 67.8 and may be able to reach 70 before turning back down. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to +40, with the 10% index in very positive territory. The weekly stochastic has been over 98% for 3 sessions in a row, and the daily has been above 95% for 4 sessions consecutively, so it should take heavy volume to maintain these lofty levels.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a mildly positive .89, with a/d of 19/14, up/down volume of 3/2, indicating little accumulation, and on moderately light volume of 1.55B shares. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +40 as well.
The sentiment indicators are moving with the uptrend, and are more indicative of prices being high than being low. The VIX/VXN, put/call ratio, and investment advisors bullish vs. bearish are not great short term timing tools so they could be giving these signals for a while before the market weakens.
The Dow has a chance of not only testing the psychological resistance of 9000, but also the prior high of 9077, by Friday, or by early next week. If we rise on light volume on Wednesday and Friday due to the holiday, then it will be important to bulls that we rally on heavy volume early next week or risk a reversal back down.
The Nasdaq should run into resistance at 1520 and again at 1570. The 200 dma is at 1573 and a prior high was at 1568. And the S&P 500 has resistance at its prior high of 975.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position, swing, and daytrading.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting starts off in the private chat room, and then usually goes into the regular rooms for more capacity. Just Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
