***** Technical Analysis (for December 10)*****
The outside week to the downside last week, also known as bearish engulfing stick, portends another down week for market participants but the institutions will determine that. The action today was not strong enough to tip the scales to favor the market reversing back up in the next few weeks.
For Tuesday, the Nasdaq TRIN closed at a very positive .36, with a/d of 20/13, up/down volume 4/1, indicating moderate accumulation, on light volume of 1.5B shares. The MACD remains very negative while the Williams%R, DMI (ADX), and Acc/Dist are also negative. The Money Flow improved to slightly positive while the CCI improved to neutral. The RSI rose to 48.4 but it now has a down trendline.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator improved to -19 from -34, while the 10% index is below the 5% one and the zero line, so it is still giving a bearish signal. The daily stochastic rose to 32% crossed down while the hourly is 36% crossed up but the 30 minute stochastic is looking a bit toppy.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a positive .62, with a/d of 11/5, up/down volume 7/2, indicating moderate accumulation, on light volume of 1.2B shares. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +2 but it too has made lower highs.
The VIX declined to 31.7 as the market rose while the VXN declined less, to 51.7, but their MACDs are still crossed up, a bearish sign. The put/call ratio rose to .89 with a negative MACD. The advisors are still more bullish than bearish.
The Nasdaq has resistance at 1420 while the Dow has it at 8600 and more at 8770, which may be formidable. The S&P 500 underperformed all day and finally started to catch up to the Nasdaq, but it may be giving a sign that there is no conviction to the rallies.
The market may be resetting before we see another downdraft. Bonds may have a little more upside, the US dollar appears to be in a new downtrend, and spot gold is taking a breather before starting another leg up, perhaps.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or index vehicles. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA or forecast.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position, swing, and daytrading.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting starts off in the private chat room, and then usually goes into the regular rooms for more capacity. Just Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
