The board will discuss aspects of the epic American credit and bond bubble and it's ramifications for investors. Emphasis will be on how to profit from (or at least survive) a bond bear market and/or a credit collapse. Basic entry prerequistes to take this lab: 1. the knowledge that bond prices move inversely to interest rates. 2. an understanding that bonds can lose value if credit conditions deteriorate.
Food for thought:
"A sound banker, alas, is not one who forsees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him".
- John Maynard Keynes
Lab tools:
Good glossary:
investinginbonds.com
Treasury yields:
bondtalk.com
Key bubble related charts and graphics from the Hoisington Management presentation at Grant Conference, Nov. 13, 2003:
Message 19632973
Economic releases and data (NBER):
nber.org
Terrific economic data base and graphic capacity:
economagic.com
Daily Treasury Statement; withholding tax receipts:
fms.treas.gov
Key measure of cheap loosey goosey easy credit to consumers; mortgage application index, purchase index, refi index, out every Wed. I'm looking for a chart/graphic:
mbaa.org
TrimTabs (Charles Biderman) weekly liquidity report:
trimtabs.com
AMG mutual fund flows:
amgdata.com
Investment Institute, mutual fund cash levels come out end of month:
ici.org
IPO calendar from CBS Marketwatch:
cbs.marketwatch.com
Insider selling and buying: Thomsons, hit "market tear sheet":
insider.thomsonfn.com
Fed repurchase pool:
bullandbearwise.com
Some original thinking on how fed repos impact markets:
financialsense.com
St. Louis Fed data and updates: treasure trove:
research.stlouisfed.org
research.stlouisfed.org
Fed govt securities bought outright (monetized):
ny.frb.org
Federal Reserve flow of funds data:
federalreserve.gov
Foreign transactions in US securities (Updated on the 11th business day of each month, with a 1.5 month lag.) in 2004: Jan 16, Feb 17, Mar 15, Apr 15, May 17, June 15, July 16, Aug 16, Sept 16, Oct 18, Nov 16 and Dec 15.
treas.gov
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
bea.doc.gov
Federal Reserve Economic Data: St. Louis Fed
research.stlouisfed.org
Bond Market Asso.;data and reporting on the credit markets:
bondmarkets.com
National Asso. of Realtors; housing bubble data:
realtor.org
Tokyo-Mitsubishi economic and retail data:
btmna.com
Plant closings:
bizsites.com
Baltic freight index(BDIY):
quote.bloomberg.com
JOC-ECRI industrial commodities index:
joc.com
LME metal inventories, another good "maladjusted economy" indicator:
metalprices.com
Average world steel transaction prices (monthly):
meps.co.uk
Bureau of Labor Statistics, general:
bls.gov
Bureau of Labor Statistics, with focus on food and energy inflation:
data.bls.gov
Life in the trenches with purchasing managers (Purchasing.com):
manufacturing.net
Fed fund forwards:
cbot.com
Yields, spreads, curves, and for a good time call, etc:
bonds-online.com
Committment of traders (COT) reports:
commitmentsoftraders.com
Prudent Bear commentaries; key on Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin (updated weekends), Marshall Auerback, and Richard Duncan:
prudentbear.com
Richard Duncan's extraordinary new book, "The Dollar Crisis". My book review is at the Amazon site. amazon.com
Financial Sense Online (Jim Puplava), some very good weekend interviews and links to other sites:
netcastdaily.com
Excellent commentary and graphics from Contrary Investor:
contraryinvestor.com
Bill Fleckenstein:
moneycentral.msn.com
Bank Credit Analyst: Although I am no fan of BCA's cavalier, la de dah approach (analysis) to bubble economics (everything is always a "mini-bubble" to them) they do present powerful and informative charts. Take special note of their tracking of "dollar based liquidity".
bcaresearch.com
Pimco bonds:
pimco.com
Levy Economics Institute:
levy.org
Futures market quotes:
sites2.barchart.com |
