***** Technical Analysis (for February 11)*****
The markets were down in light trading but there was a bearish reversal mid-day. I do not know how much more the market can keep the slow and fast stochastics at oversold levels without a technical rally of consequence as opposed to the technical bounces that we've seen in the past couple of weeks. Intense selling would need to start soon to keep the rally from occurring in all probability.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .72, with a/d of 14/17 but up/down volume better at 6/5, on only 1.3B shares, so the rally early in the session was on very light volume. The MACD, Williams%R, DMI, ADX, Money Flow, Acc/Dist and Aroon are still negative while the CCI improved to neutral to negative.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to -25 as some selling pressure has dissipated a bit. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator closed at -37 and its Summation Index is declining at -90.
The weekly stochastics are crossed down for the Nasdaq and the Dow while the dailies are very oversold and could be portending a technical bounce or rally again soon.
Sentiment indicators are still mostly negative, with the VIX and VXN MACDs crossed up. Advisors are still too bullish.
There appears to be a lessening of selling pressure for the moment, but the momentum is still down for the intermediate term, at least until we get capitulation. There has been a grinding down but no throwing in the towel.
Resistance levels are hard-pressed to reach and the next major move may be down again as discussed here since late November.
The Dow has fallen below the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, thereby portending a retest of 7197 as the next major target.
Gold has been weak in the past few days and gold stocks have lagged and are now quite oversold. The U.S. dollar has firmed up a bit and it may only be a matter of time before it falls again.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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