***** Technical Analysis (for February 25)*****
The late rally today heartened the bulls but before they celebrate too much, look at the charts and technical indicators, which remain negative on balance.
For today, the Nasdaq TRIN closed at a neutral 1.02, with a/d of 16/15, up/down volume was 8/7, on light volume of 1.4B shares. The MACD, Money Flow and Acc/Dist are positive, while the DMI and Aroon are negative. The others are neutral and the RSI rose to 48.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to +4, and its 10% index rose just above the 5% one. The weekly stochastics remain crossed down while the dailies are crossed up.
The NYSE TRIN was a mildly positive .86, with a/d of 19/14, up/down volume 8/5, on moderately light volume of 1.5B shares. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +3.
The sentiment indicators are mixed with the VIX/VXN MACDs crossed down, a positive sign while the put/call ratio is giving a neutral to negative reading now, and advisors remain too bullish.
The Nasdaq filled the gap at 1310 and then rallied strongly, a positive for the market. But there is another gap below at 1281, not to mention the 1221 and 1166 gaps. And there is a gap above at 1420 but it does not appear that it will fill in the near future.
The market is grinding down with intermittent technical bounces and rallies, and we are making a series of lower highs and lower lows in the Summation Index and charts.
Resistance levels are still formidable for the Dow and the S&P 500 is fairly weak relatively speaking. Thus, we may bounce on Wednesday morning and depending on the internals, it may be short-lived, lasting a few hours or a day or two more. Then we may see lower lows as 7628 should get tested soon, and then it will be seen if it can hold or will break.
Gold fell again as it can't seem to muster up any positive momentum. It is now retesting lows and has crossed back down on the stochastics. But future weakness in the U.S. dollar could help spot gold prices.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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