***** Technical Analysis (February 18)****
The market technicals worsened this week, especially the McClellan Oscillator, which fell below the zero line for both the Nasdaq and NYSE. Bulls need to see this reverse almost immediately, early next week, to prevent a bearish follow-through, which could take weeks to reach a bottom.
The daily MACD's are mixed or neutral while the monthly, weekly, and daily stochastics are crossed down for the Nasdaq, and have weakened for the other indices. The BP indexes have also weakened as have the CCI and DMI (ADX).
The weekly MACD for the Nasdaq remains crossed down and headed downward. The index is trading below the 50 dma and above the 200 dma.
The Summation Indexes appear to be making lower highs and lower lows, especially for the Nasdaq, and the relative weakness of the Nasdaq bodes badly for the overall health of the market. The Summation is below its zero line for the Nasdaq, and it should be noted that the largest stock declines occur when it is headed down and below that zero line.
Energy prices and stocks continued their rallying despite many becoming parabolic from their moving averages. These stochastic pops will eventually see corrections. Some of the lower tier energy stocks are having larger percentage moves than their much larger counterparts.
Gold and silver rallied modestly this week and last, while the USD seems to have topped out for the time being as it stalled out at around 85 1/2 a couple of weeks ago.
Bonds finally fell this week as yields rose even in the long end of the curve. But they probably remain in a range of 3.95% to 4.3% for the 10 year note.
The next major move for stocks may be down though a minor bounce up could still occur sometime next week. And energy prices/stocks could start a correction next week. Finally, the USD could resume its downtrend, thus helping gold prices, though it may be a slow grind as opposed to something dramatic next week.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
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