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Ever heard of the Free Float? This question in these times leads one to recall the old adage "Experts built the Titanic, amatuers built the Arc."
I have since joining SI over eight years ago been the only practioner, that I've ever run into, who relies exclusively on the metric of the free float as a primary discriminator in constructing trading and investing portfolios. I put these together from Supply Imbalances that exist in the marketplace. My various iterations of "SIP" stand for Supply Imbalance Portfolios. The portfolio SIP1 has been made a private portfolio. SIP1 is but one of three SIP portfolios, the other portfolios are development portfolios whose issues will move onto the active portfolio as stock signals & current trajectories warrant. The goal of the portfolio is to multiply units owned over time. Each stock is selected for the probability of a stock split in the current trading cycle The avg holding period is over 1 year, but asset allocation methods are constantly applied to any open position.
All Stocks should; if they've been selected correctly, move toward a liquidity creation event.
"All action happens against the float", for me, this captures the essential character of tradeing in a Supply demand market. If a stock on this list is assaulted by decisions of management that stock would be removed.
Devising strategies and tactics that capture the opportunity of making money is wholly linked to the current trend of the business cycle on a company by company basis.Here is our overall performance from SIP 04; dev.siliconinvestor.com
Going Forward; this paper contains a conceptual road map of our distributed network of applied understanding and intellectual process; historianofthefuture.com
Fundamentals combined with rapid asset allocation movements determine where assets in a current trend should be placed. Recognizing the current state of any given security against others in a portfolio is key. All Action happens in the passing of time where a companies current state will dictate it's impending state those states are Accumulation, Distribution, Obfuscation or Neutral.
This Portfolio is designed to focus ones attention on the Trees, not the forest.
As a Student of Systems I try to find the Hand of man;
This piece aptly describes how Systems are formed:
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Von Mises teaches us that "All Economics is rooted in Human Action," he calls this the science of Praxeology.
mises.org
He talks about the impossibility of econometrics, he surmises; rightfully that no statistics can measure the future impact of the hand of man; his needs wants and desires and ultimately his choices. The following paper is an admission that in fact Econometrics has engaged in producing fiction, by way of ignoring missing information, thereby conclusive outcomes might appear valid up to the point that outside bandwidth is applied and exposes the half truths.
economics.utoronto.ca
In our time; economists attempt to model everything; with the goal to frame a statistical foundation for whatever surmise their efforts endow. Lets watch the evolution of this important information source; Message 23660205
Von Mises teaches us the Acting Man capitulates to no predictive models; and that the appearance that he does, is always temporary.
Knowing this has led me to the conclusion that those who see the markets as a system within systems, using Supply and demand as a base line, protects you not from the outright fabrication of price action over time, but provides the understanding that price may be an artifact of a system in action, whose sole purpose is to capture the forward demand dynamics of growth companies.
The Hand of man is always present; goals, wants, desires, expressions, all lead to Intent. Intent cant exist in a vacume; so, we must identify its communications mechanisms to understand its goals and its effects cast along its trajectory. The daily machinations of the trade operate according to rules; here is a page from the rule book; Message 20382730
Rules provide the framework upon which rests the axioms of prevailing systems intent. This link illuminates one primary schools intent. airpower.maxwell.af.mil
Decades of programming and research purposed to defeat Supply and demand.
www-psych.stanford.edu
All intent is designed to construct favorable effects to meet systems ends. Seeing the market as a System of Systems changes everything. Here is a piece on the systemic intent expressed by naked short sellers, which serves a community of interests, against the interests of investors; The Video on Failure to Deliver is disconnected and so we will use this presentation by Mr Byrne which is a comprehensive overview of the issues surrounding investor fortunes with respect to wall street.
deepcapturethemovie.com
the disconnected link content was here; (is being retained for reference only)
bloomberg.com
Fortunately to know a system is to understand its sensory organs, the output mechanisms, the input mechanisms and to what degree each functions in the real world. Our VR hosts defined. arxiv.org
The essence of Systems is captured in a tract from John Galls seminal book SYSTEMANTICS©, now available as The Systems Bible ©.
As a student of Systems; I became a believer in the following description of all systems, as was presented in the book called SYSTEMANTICS © by John Gall; it goes like this; Inside Systems pg 48 & 49 to Order generalsystemantics.com
Overview generalsystemantics.com
RO/RS = CF is as important to Social Systems as E=MC2 is to Science. The Market is a Social System.
We can know a thing by its character, and its character is defined by its Sensory organs. The description below nails down what to look for, and leads the seeker to a place where proper characterization can be made. Logic is the art of non contradictory identification.
As an aid to measuring social systems performance, and thereby elevate our social systems, we set about correcting contradictions both real and constructed. We add the tool described here, and known as Locard's Exchange Principle Message 24345914
use it wisely, because it contains truths of self evidence.
Corollary #1
All systems are only as good as their sensory Organs.
A System is no Better than its sensory organs
Corollary #2
To those within a system, outside reality tends to pale and disappear;
In an effort to introduce quantitative methodology into this important area of research a group of dedicated systemologists has paid particular attention to the amount of information that reaches, or fails to reach the relevant systems administrators also classified as Control Units (CU) of any particular system.
The crucial variable they have found is the fraction Ro/Rs where Ro equals the amount of reality which fails to reach the control unit. And Rs equals the total amount of reality presented to the system.
The fraction Ro/Rs varies from 0 (full awareness of outside reality) to unity ( no reality getting through) The result is known naturally enough, as the COEFFICIENT OF FICTION (CF)
Ro/Rs=CF
Positive Feedback (P.F. )obviously competes with reality R for input into the system. The higher the PF the larger the quantity of reality which fails to gain entrance into the system Ro, and thus the higher the resulting CF. In systems employing PF; values of CF in excess of 0.99 have been recorded. Examples include evangelistic religious movements, certain authoritarian government systems and the executive suites of some very large corporations.
The bigger the System, the narrower and more specialized the interface with individuals…. End of Gall tracts
This little diversion about going Inside systems links nicely with our own development of the Obfuscation metric as applied to the System that is wall street, and the media which is but a sensory output organ of the system.
The following essay © by Mr John Bonython was presented twice by The Center for Independent Studies, given in Oct 2005, it covers some important subjects ranging from Medias role in forming our perception by subjecting us to intrinsic bias, to the general benefits of Capitalism versus any alternatives. It introduces key concepts which are inextricably linked to the metrics we call Forward Demand while explaining the inseperable Hand /Mind of Man's role, present in all things economic.
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