***** Technical Analysis (for February 26)*****
The Nasdaq had an inside day with a lower close while the Dow fell triple digits (103 points) to 7806 and the S&P 500 dropped below 830 (by 3 points) which is some support.
The McClellan Oscillator reversed back down below zero for the Nasdaq (-4) and the NYSE (-7) as it can't seem to make up its mind, whipsawing above and below the zero line. This time the slow stochastic has just crossed down from over 75%, a bearish setup. Even a crossover back up can result in a double cross, which is very bearish.
The Nasdaq Summation Index is at -581, a distinctly negative area to be falling from. The NYSE Summation is at -249, with both 10% indexes just a hair below the 5% ones.
The weekly stochastics are crossed down, 47% and 33% for the Nasdaq and NYSE, respectively. The dailies weakened to 41% and 33% for them.
The Nasdaq RSI fell to 43.5, while the MACD is positive but has worsened and the DMI and Aroon remain negative. The Williams%R, CCI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist are neutral.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a very negative 3.77, with a/d of 2/3, up/down volume 1/6, on light volume of 1.2B shares. The NYSE TRIN was a mildly negative 1.19, with a/d of 2/3, up/down volume 9/17, on light volume of 1.3B shares.
The VXN rose from 44 to 47, and its MACD is nearing a crossover which would be bearish if it occurs. The VIX rose a point to 37. The put/call ratio's MACD is getting negative again.
The range for the Dow has gotten very narrow and technicals are compressing so the next move is likely to be extreme. The odds favor the bears even if we get a technical bounce or two in the next week.
The gold market is oversold but needs to start a steady runup to validate the continuation of the bull market.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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