***** Technical Analysis (for February 27)*****
The Dow swung wildly today and the schizophrenic market once again whipsawed the McClellan Oscillator, which rose above zero again to +9/+13 for the Nasdaq/NYSE, respectively, but on light volume of 1.3B shares for the Nasdaq and NYSE.
The Nasdaq had the second inside day in a row so the next move should be pretty significant. The Nasdaq TRIN was a very positive .57, with a/d of 19/13, up/down volume 18/7, indicating modest accumulation on light volume.
The Nasdaq MACD is the only major indicator that is positive and it has weakened. The Williams%R, CCI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist are neutral while the DMI and Aroon are negative. During the rally the ADX has not budged, thereby questioning the validity of the rallies.
The Nasdaq and Dow weekly stochastics are still crossed down while the dailies are crossed up but not showing strong positive momentum.
The VIX/VXN declined and their MACDs are crossed down, both being positive signals. The put/call ratio fell to .55 and more importantly its MACD is too low to be bullish and is crossed down.
All indices are below their 200 and 50 day moving averages and the daily and longer term chart patterns still indicate that the series of lower highs and lower highs is intact thus far, except for the Nasdaq which did make a new higher high at 1521. But the jury is still out whether these indices will at least retest their bear market lows or make lower lows.
The slow stochastics are crossed down despite today's rally, and they have crossed from high levels, thereby increasing the risk of a major downdraft in the weeks to come.
This market tests the patience of bulls who have ended up seeing rallies fail, and the patience of bears who expect fast downdrafts and continuous ones which rarely happens as consolidation of declines is usually necessary.
Gold fell sharply today and needs to hold above the low 340's support level. The bonds have rallies and the U.S. dollar remains in a bear market.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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