***** Technical Analysis (for February 6)*****
The market was mixed in light trading with the Dow having to rally to close above 7900, while the S&P 500 is acting poorly, along with its "brother," the OEX or S&P 100 index. The Nasdaq was flat today but remains susceptible to the gaps below at 1221 and 1166 in the next few weeks.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .68, with a/d of 2/3, up/down volume of 1/1, which is not impressive for the TRIN that occurred today, and the overall volume was extremely light at 1.2B shares. The MACD, Williams%R, DMI, ADX, CCI, Money Flow, Acc/Dist and Aroon remained negative. The RSI was also flat at 37.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped to -31 and its 10% index is well below the zero line. The weekly stochastic is crossed down at 46% while the daily is 5% with a very low "d" as well, indicating a technical bounce is due pretty soon, perhaps on Friday and/or Monday.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.44, with a/d of 11/20, up/down volume 2/5, on 1.4B shares. The McClellan Oscillator fell to -35 and the Summation Index dropped to +28 so it is at risk of falling below the zero line. The weekly stochastic is at 39% crossed down while the daily is 4% with a low "d" as well.
The sentiment indicators are mostly negative while the put/call ratio rose sharply to 1.35 and its MACD is now neutral, but usually has a lead time of 2-4 weeks, so we could still have a few more weeks of weakness by this indication.
The Dow now has resistance near 8150 as well as 8250 and the S&P 500 looks to have broken down badly as it couldn't get above 865, which is now resistance.
A technical bounce is due for Friday or Monday, but the trend remains down and could accelerate next week.
Gold has stalled and may be backing and filling while most gold stocks are still lagging and could be worrisome if they do not get going next week. But the U.S. dollar probably will fall after its technical bounce fails, perhaps next week, too.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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