The board will discuss aspects of the epic American credit and bond bubble and it's ramifications for investors. Emphasis will be on how to profit from (or at least survive) a bond bear market and/or a credit collapse. Basic entry prerequistes to take this lab: 1. the knowledge that bond prices move inversely to interest rates. 2. an understanding that bonds can lose value if credit conditions deteriorate.
Food for thought:
"A sound banker, alas, is not one who forsees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him".
- John Maynard Keynes
Lab tools:
Good glossary:
investinginbonds.com
Economic releases and data (NBER):
nber.org
Bankrate.com: various interest rates, charted:
bankrate.com
30yr Treasury/Vanguard High Yield Corp ratio to track credit spreads.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) quote:
futuresource.com
Treasury rates and Agency spreads:
gcm.com
Libor and Constant Maturity Treasury yields, used to price "house as ATM card" reset costs on Adjustable Rate Mortgages:
libor-loans.com
federalreserve.gov
Treasury Dept Auction Announcements and Results:
publicdebt.treas.gov
Key bubble related charts and graphics from the Hoisington Management presentation at Grant Conference, Nov. 13, 2003:
Message 19632973
Paul Kasreil's (Northern Trust) presentation "Inevitable Rebalancing of the US Economy". A must read.
northerntrust.com
Economic Policy Institute chart and synopsis of the degree foreign CBs "finance" US trade and debt imbalances.
epinet.org
Peter Warburton's Debt and Delusion, although written before the serious arrival of heavy handed foreign central banks, still offers a concise overview of "Boyz" synthetic finance: financial assets inflation, gearing, management of expectations, and corruption of savings:
Message 21008670
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI):
businesscycle.com
Daily Treasury Statement; withholding tax receipts:
fms.treas.gov
Key measure of cheap loosey goosey easy credit to consumers; mortgage application index, purchase index, refi index, out every Wed. I'm looking for a chart/graphic:
mbaa.org
Rasmussen consumer and investor confidence, also daily Bush- Kerry polls:
rasmussenreports.com
TrimTabs (Charles Biderman) weekly liquidity report:
trimtabs.com
AMG mutual fund flows:
amgdata.com
Investment Institute, mutual fund cash levels come out end of month:
ici.org
Fed repurchase pool:
bullandbearwise.com
Fed permanent operations:
ny.frb.org
Some original thinking on how fed repos impact markets:
financialsense.com
St. Louis Fed data and updates: treasure trove:
research.stlouisfed.org
research.stlouisfed.org
Fed govt securities bought outright (monetized):
federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve flow of funds data:
federalreserve.gov
Foreign transactions in US securities (Updated on the 11th business day of each month, with a 1.5 month lag.) in 2005:
Jan 18, Feb 15, Mar 15, Apr 15, May 16, June 15, July 18, Aug 15, Sept 16, Oct 18, Nov 16 and Dec 15.
treas.gov
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
bea.doc.gov
Federal Reserve Economic Data: St. Louis Fed
research.stlouisfed.org
Tokyo-Mitsubishi economic and retail data:
btmna.com
Baltic freight index(BDIY):
quote.bloomberg.com
JOC-ECRI industrial commodities index:
joc.com
LME metal inventories, another good "maladjusted economy" indicator:
metalprices.com
Spectrum Commodites: one of best wealth of information sites on commodities markets. Education section is especially worthwhile:
spectrumcommodities.com
Coal prices:
eia.doe.gov
Bureau of Labor Statistics, general:
bls.gov
Bureau of Labor Statistics, with focus on food and energy inflation:
data.bls.gov
Life in the trenches with purchasing managers (Purchasing.com):
manufacturing.net
Fed fund forwards, implied rates:
trendmacro.com
Committment of traders (COT) reports:
64.82.65.31
Prudent Bear commentaries; key on Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin (updated weekends), Marshall Auerback, and Richard Duncan:
prudentbear.com
Financial Sense Online (Jim Puplava), some very good weekend interviews and links to other sites:
netcastdaily.com
Excellent commentary and graphics from Contrary Investor:
contraryinvestor.com
Sage Capital:
sagecapital.com
Bill Fleckenstein:
moneycentral.msn.com
Bank Credit Analyst:
bcaresearch.com
Futures market quotes:
sites2.barchart.com
My Inflation Train Wreck Essay:
financialsense.com
Ild's charts and graphs:
idorfman.com
Jesse's charts (very good chart collection and comments, intervention meter, etc):
geocities.com
2004-05 Winter Energy Train Wreck Watch:
Accuweather:http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=accuweather |
