***** Technical Analysis (for March 10)*****
The Dow fell sharply while the Nasdaq did so more moderately and the S&P 500 was also quite weak. The excuse for the drop is "worries about the war" which was interpreted as positive when the market rallied because the uncertainty is taken away.
The reality is that there are so many players in the marketplace and so many types of selling, such as taking profits or short-selling or taking losses, for a variety of reasons or emotions. This is why technical analysis is more helpful than speculating why buying or selling is going on. TA is based upon the idea that all factors are in the price and in the trend.
The Dow fell and closed below its 7628 level previously reached and the Nasdaq also had its lowest close in months, as did the S&P 500. The NYSE had climactic selling as measured by the TRIN which was 5.86 as the up/down volume was about 1/18 if my data are correct, but the overall volume was light at 1.2B shares, and it did not occur on the heels of very weak days so it might only be a signal of a temporary bottom for the NYSE and Dow.
The Nasdaq TRIN was a moderately negative 1.44, with a/d of 9/23, with up/down volume 1/4, much better than on the NYSE, so distribution here was mild, and on very light volume of 1.1B shares. The RSI fell to 39 while the MACD turned barely negative. The Williams%R, CCI and Acc/Dist worsened to negative while the Money Flow is barely positive and the Aroon improved to positive, curiously.
The weekly stochastics for the Dow/Nasdaq are 0%/6%, but the "d" stochastics are still quite high so more weakness is likely in the next 1-2 weeks. The dailies are crossed down now, 1%/18% for the Nasdaq/Dow, and their "d" stochastics are high as well.
The Nasdaq/NYSE McClellan Oscillators fell sharply to -25/-22, respectively, and may portend 2-3 more sharply lower down days in the next week. Their 10% indexes are now below their 5% ones, a negative signal.
The VIX/VXN MACDs are uncrossed now and threatening to cross up, which would be very bearish for the markets, so the next 1-2 days action is critical to the next trend signal. The put/call ratio rose to .87 but its MACD is still negative.
The markets could bounce here but the trend remains down and the slow stochastics indicate lower prices ahead with only technical bounces likely. The bearish momentum has increased by today's action and the bears need to see a follow through in the next 1-2 sessions, while the bulls are in trouble for the short term.
The gold stocks have continued their downtrend and appear to have a lower trading range before any successful rally. The bond market is strong while the U.S. dollar is in a trading range but in a bear market.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting starts off in the private chat room, and then may go into the regular rooms for more capacity. Just Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
