***** Technical Analysis (for March 11)*****
The markets were down modestly after yesterday's sharper decline, and the NYSE Composite was unable to muster up a rally despite the climactic selling as indicated by a TRIN of almost 6 on Monday.
The Nasdaq TRIN was a negative 1.72, with a/d of 14/17, up/down volume 4/7, indicating mild distribution, on light volume of 1.25B shares. There is complacency on Wall Street despite the 1,500 point fall from 9077 to the current reading of 7524. This complacency suggests that we are far from a bottom.
The Nasdaq MACD worsened to becoming more negative after having just turned negative, which implies we are in for many more negative MACD readings and lower prices. The Williams%R, DMI, CCI, and Acc/Dist remained negative while the Money Flow worsened from slightly positive to slightly negative. The RSI dropped to 37.9.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to -23 from -25, and the 10% index is below the 5% index, and the Summation Index is declining at -624 and may try to get to -1000 before a bottom is reached. The weekly stochastic is now 3% with a high "d" reading.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.77, with a/d of 13/19, up/down volume 2/5, on moderately light volume of 1.4B shares. The Dow weekly stochastic is 0% with a high "d."
The McClellan Oscillator finished at -26 with its 10% index below the 5% index.
The Nasdaq made a bottom at 1261 in February and got within 8 points of it today, and should take it out this week as the gap at 1221 is waiting to get filled. Another gap at 1166 awaits.
The Dow should get a bounce once again but the question is whether it will last hours or 1-2 days, while the answer to the trend appears evident, with 7197 to be tested in the next 1-2 weeks. If we go almost straight down from here, then we could get oversold enough for a technical rally from that level. If we rally too much now, then we should break down below it on the first try.
The VIX/VXN MACDs have risen and are almost imperceptively crossed up now and another weak day in the next day or two should confirm the crossover, which would be very bearish for the market. The put/call ratio is still giving slightly negative signals.
Bonds have rallied once again and the gold stocks have continued their decline, sometimes even when spot gold prices rise, a bearish divergence signal.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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