***** Technical Analysis (for March 12)*****
A late rally brought all the major indices to modest gains today, marking a one-day reversal and a stick that implies more upside, at least tomorrow morning.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .64 with a/d of 7/8, up/down volume 4/3, indicating mild accumulation on selective issues, on light volume of 1.5B shares. The up/down volume never got extremely negative today which was a clue that we could rally late in the session.
The Nasdaq MACD remains negative as do the DMI and CCI but the Williams%R, Money Flow and Acc/Dist improved to neutral. The Aroon worsened to neutral and the RSI improved to 40. The index remains below its 200 and 50 day moving averages but did rise above the hourly but not the daily moving average.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to -19 while its 10% index is still below the 5% one and the zero line. The Summation Index is now at -644 and heading down. The weekly stochastic is 9% crossed down and the daily is 26% crossed down so they may just be resetting.
It should be noted that the a/d lines and new highs/new lows are trending downward.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a positive .75, with a/d of 14/19, up/down volume 1/1, on 1.5B shares. The Dow weekly stochastic is 8% crossed down and the daily is 20% barely crossed down. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -29 and worsened a bit.
The a/d's are not very positive or are actually negative, thereby not showing very good breadth today even though the indices were up.
The VIX/VXN MACDs are still barely crossed up and we shall see if they reverse back down or not. The put/call ratio rose to .89 but its MACD is still giving a negative reading. Advisors are a little more bullish than bearish.
The Dow may only rally to 7650-7700 or so and the S&P 500 will be hard-pressed to rise above 830 now. The Nasdaq may have a better chance of rising to 1320 but all indices should reverse back down next week and could reach 7197/768/1221 (gap) by the end of next week.
Some good news on the geopolitical front could delay these levels for an additional week or so but the odds are very high that they will be reached in the next few weeks.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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