***** Technical Analysis (for March 13)*****
A huge rally today exceeded expectations that Wednesday's late rally would extend into Thursday's action by the magnitude of it. Volume picked up to moderate and we should see more upside on Friday morning, and depending on the internals being positive enough, it should be an up day. But there is a gap at Nasdaq 1279 now which could fill next week.
The Nasdaq TRIN was an extremely positive .19, with a/d of 23/9, up/down volume 12/1, on moderate volume of 1.8B shares. The MACD turned positive from negative yesterday, as did the DMI. The Williams%R, Money Flow and Acc/Dist improved to positive from neutral while the CCI and Aroon remained neutral. The RSI rose sharply to 55 from 40.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose sharply to +8 from -19, two days after the Oscillator changed only by 2 points, causing the huge move forecast within four sessions, but the problem is that that rule does not say which direction.
The Nasdaq weekly stochastic is at 32% crossed down and daily is at 87% crossed up, so more upside action is likely in the near term of 1-2 days.
The NYSE TRIN was a very positive .56, with a/d of 24/9, up/down volume 14/3, on moderate volume of 1.7B shares. The Dow weekly stochastic is 24% crossed down and daily is 61% crossed up. The McClellan Oscillator rose to 0.
The strength of the rally today caught many of us technicians by surprise as the technicals were negative going into today's session. The internals were very positive all session long and kept improving as the day wore on.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are neutral now after having been crossed up, so its market signal is uncertain now. The put/call ratio is still giving a negative MACD reading.
While we could get some strength in the next 2-3 days, the market has a lot to prove to indicate that we can make a series of new higher highs and higher lows. This bear market has had many false rallies and this one is likely to join the others in time.
The Dow powered past my 7650-7700 resistance level with a vengeance and now has resistance at 7900 and 8050. The Nasdaq broke above my 1320 resistance level with authority and now may have resistance at 1360, then 1420.
The bond market sold off today while the U.S. dollar rallied. Gold has been weak the past few days and may be headed towards the 315-320/oz level, the level from which it rallied to 389.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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