***** Technical Analysis (for March 14)*****
Friday saw a modest rally after Thursday's huge runup and on lighter volume. The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a mildly negative 1.25, with a/d of 15/16, up/down volume 7/9, on 1.6B shares, down from 1.8B Thursday.
The Nasdaq MACD and CCI improved to positive while the Williams%R, DMI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist remained positive, while the Aroon remained neutal and the OBV was negative. The RSI was little changed at 55. The index is below its 200 and 50 day moving averages which are at 1343 and 1351.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator was unchanged at +8, which implies a large move within 4 sessions. The 10% index is above its 5% one. The weekly stochastic remains crossed down at 32% while the daily is at 87% crossed up.
The NYSE TRIN was a mildly negative 1.13, with a/d of 9/7, up/down volume 8/7, on 1.5B shares. The Dow weekly stochastic is 27% crossed down. The McClellan Oscillator is at +5.
The VIX/VXN are giving neutral readings now while the put/call MACD is giving negative readings. Investors Intelligence bullish advisors are at 39% while the bearish ones are 37%, giving a neutral reading.
The selling dissipated on Wednesday afternoon and was followed by a huge rally on Thursday but volume was greater than average but not heavy nor was there heavy volume on Friday's rally day for the Dow.
Conventional wisdom has it that the market will rise as soon as the uncertainty about the war against Iraq is removed. We have recently rallied and could rally a bit more this week, but sometimes rallying into news that is considered positive results in selling soon after the news is out.
Technically the market can get more overbought in the next few days but has a lot to prove to make it a rally that won't fail within a short time.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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