***** Technical Analysis (week ending March 19)****
The Dow fell below 10,200 agaom on Friday. The Nasdaq has been weaker for a few months now, closing down for the week, at 1940, below the psychological support level of 2000. The S&P 500 has been one of the strongest indices of late but it also has declined, closing at 1109 on Friday.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed Friday at 1.89, 60 minute stochastic crossed up (a negative in the near term), a/d of 2/3, up/down volume 1/3, on light volume of 1.65B shares. Its a/d line is negative now and weaker than the NYSE a/d, as is its Summation Index. The McClellan Oscillator is -29, and can't seem to get above zero even after having been extremely oversold. Summation is at -257 as followed through below zero, a negative development for the intermediate term.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic is 79% crossed up, weekly 23% crossed down, daily 9% crossed down, hourly 0% crossed down. The Williams%R, MACD, DMI (ADX), CCI, Money Flow, Acc/Dist and Aroon are negative. The RSI fell to 38 this week. Nasdaq is below its 50 dma (2051) but above its 200 dma (1884), and the index may bounce up towards the 50 dma and if it cannot reach it or break above it with authority, it will likely fall to the 200 dma at a minimum.
The Dow monthly stochastic is 84% crossed up, weekly 51% crossed down, daily 15% crossed down, hourly 4% crossed down, so a short term bounce may be imminent. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is -29 and Summation Index is at +510 as it remains stronger than the Nasdaq.
The USD remains in a trading range between 87-89 while gold closed above the 400 level at 412, and silver closed just above 7.50, as it continues to have relative strength. Bonds stayed firm this week though its rally stalled and the energy complex was also firm.
"Good news" such as the capture or killing of the #1 or #2 Al Queda terrorist would likely engender a rally but it could be temporary. Capture of killing of Bin Ladin might have longer-lasting effects but the longer term trend of the market has more fundamental factors, and they are very bearish.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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