***** Technical Analysis (for March 25)*****
The follow-through on the downside today after yesterday's very weak close was modest and ephemeral, leading to a moderate gain on the indices and better internals.
The Nasdaq TRIN was a very positive .31, with a/d of 20/11, up/down volume of 5/1, indicating moderate accumulation, on light volume of 1.4B shares. The MACD, DMI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist remained positive while the Williams%R improved to positive. The ROC, OBV, CCI, and Aroon remained neutral. The RSI rose to 58.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to +31 and its 10% index rose above the zero line. The weekly stochastics improved to 51% but is still slightly crossed down, dailies 79% crossed up, hourlies 39% crossed up. The index remains above the 50/200 day moving averages at 1341/1344.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a positive .52, with a/d of 23/9, up/down volume 5/1, on light volume of 1.3B shares. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +35. The monthly and weekly stochastics are uncrossed at 31%/53%.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are both crossed down now, making for positive readings. The put/call ratio MACD remains in negative territory while advisors are 46% bullish vs. 35% bearish, which does not bode well for those who are long stocks in the intermediate term, although in the short term the majority can be right temporarily.
The Dow has held above the 8150 support level and the S&P 500 may have support at around 865. But the next few days will tell the story technically as the Dow needs to work its way back up to the 8600 level pretty quickly if the technical indicators are to hold at positive levels.
We may be in for a trading range now between 8150-8200 on the low end and 8600 on the high end as few participants may be willing to hold onto stocks for very long as we continue to be buffeted by war news in the next week.
Technicians should watch for bearish divergences to show up in the next couple of weeks but for the near term the momentum is neutral to positive. Without heavier volume the rally will eventually peter out. On a daily basis, watch the up/down volume figures and how they trend intra-day as well, which is one important indicator of accumulation vs. distribution.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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