***** Technical Analysis (for March 26)*****
The market was modestly down in light trading on Wednesday as few heavy hitters were willing to make a strong committment either way.
My revised trading range for the Dow is 7950-8150 support to 8521-8600 resistance, with a good chance for a retest of the prior closing high of 8521 in the next 1-2 weeks, and a possibility of taking that out.
This rally is not acting like the type of technical rally that lasts for 3-4 months as occurred from 9/21/01 to 1/02, and it certainly does not appear to be the beginning of a new secular bull market. But in the short term of a few weeks, it could move higher, resulting in bearish divergences that may signal a reversal back down.
For Wednesday, the Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .56, with a/d of 14/17, up/down volume of 4/3, indicating mild accumulation in selected stocks, on light volume of 1.4B shares. The MACD is still positive but weakening as are the DMI and McClellan Oscillator, which dropped to +24. The Money Flow and Acc/Dist are positive while the Williams%R and CCI are neutral to positive.
The weekly stochastic is now 50% going down, daily 77% crossed up, hourly 60% crossed up, so the Nasdaq may fight its way up in the days ahead. The daily RSI is at 57.4 and the index is above its 200 and 50 day moving averages by 45 points.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.45, with a/d of 7/9, up/down volume 5/9, on light volume of 1.3B shares. The McClellan Oscillator declined to +24 as well.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are still crossed down, so they are staying positive. The put/call ratio is at .86 and its MACD is giving a negative reading. Advisors are more bullish than bearish by a fairly wide margin, which is negative.
The market appears to be moving according to war news, but the technicals are mildly positive at this time, so a choppy up trend may occur to retest the prior high of 8521, but then bearish divergences may start to show up.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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