***** Technical Analysis (for March 27)*****
After early weakness, the market traded in a narrow range as sellers couldn't accelerate the decline, and the indices finished only a little lower.
The Nasdaq and NYSE McClellan Oscillators changed only by 1/2 points, respectively, thereby implying another large move within 4 sessions, which is a corollary based upon Gene Morgan's interpretations. He was one of the first media technical analysts in America in the mid-1970's. They closed at +23/+26, respectively.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a negative 1.31, with a/d of 1/1, up/down volume 3/4, indicating very mild distribution, on light volume of 1.4B shares. The MACD worsened a bit but is still positive, as are the DMI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist. The Williams%R, CCI, Aroon, ROC, and OBV are neutral.
The RSI dropped a point to 56. The weekly stochastic is 48% crossed down, daily 75% sideways, hourly 44% sideways.
The NYSE Summation Index rose above the zero line, and any follow through tomorrow and Monday would be considered quite positive.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are crossed down and giving a positive reading. The put/call ratio is more negative with its MACD. Advisors are more bullish than they were a couple of weeks ago.
The Dow has held above 8200 on a closing day basis after rising to 8521, and it that is a resetting of the indicators, then one would expect another runup to at least 8521 in the next week. Depending on the breadth and volume figures on that rally, that resistance level might be taken out.
The Nasdaq has a gap above at 1403 which has a good chance of filling in the next week or two. It remains above its 200 and 50 day moving averages but that gap is narrowing and the index needs to reassert itself in the next day or two. And the S&P 500 has held support at 865, which is favorable to bulls.
But ultimately bearish divergences will show up and this technical rally is likely to fail which will preclude a series of higher highs on the indices.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting starts off in the private chat room, and then may go into the regular rooms for more capacity. Just Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
