***** Technical Analysis (for March 3)*****
The slow stochastics are still crossed up but they are below the 80% level where they were a short time ago so we shall see if the market can rally strong enough to get that back up, otherwise, it will be a bearish failure and lead to a "double cross," a very negative signal. The fast stochastics have already crossed back down but are not yet weak enough to signal a further decline.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6 and the NYSE Oscillator also weakened slightly to +19. But the 10% indexes are still a little above the 5% ones, so that has not given a sell signal yet either.
It appears the market is not quite ready to make a major move one way or another, though the technicals are still weak. Perhaps we need another corrective move up before a larger move down.
The Nasdaq TRIN was a very negative 3.02, with a/d of about 7/9, up/down volume almost as negative as 1/4, on light volume of 1.25B shares. The RSI dropped to 47.6, while the Williams%R, Money Flow and Acc/Dist worsened to negative/neutral/neutral, respectively. The OBV is showing some weakness too. The DMI improved to neutral and the CCI remained neutral.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are crossed down, a positive reading. The put/call ratio rose to .72 but its MACD is giving a bearish reading.
The Dow may rally again but will have a hard time to get above the 8050-8150 resistance level unless we get much more volume on rally days. The Nasdaq has a good deal of resistance at 1360 now.
The Dow has support near 7800 so a close below that could result in a retest of 7628, while the Nasdaq still has gaps below at 1221 and 1166.
If the internals are positive tomorrow morning, then the market should try to bounce once again towards the 8050/1360 levels, but a failure to take them out in the next 2-3 days could result in a major move down.
The problem with the rallies from below 9077 and 9043 and 8770 is that they have not seen heavy volume accumulations but rather weak ones.
The gold market has been weak since the 389 top, and continues to be weak technically, especially the gold stocks. The U.S. dollar has stopped declining for the time being and might be able to have a technical bounce but it is in a bear market.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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