The aim is to discuss/calculate a "fair value"
for the NASDAQ 100 using analysis of earnings of the
index components. We can also discuss bear market
and bull market values.
This first post is maintained from time to time
with a table of the index components. The table
is updated with the following values:
1) % weighting that each stock has in the index
2) A recent price
3) Near Term Forward Annual Earnings
4) 1 Year Plus Forward Annual Earnings
Here is the Mar 09, 2002 version of these values. I have
used Friday's closing prices and the earnings
estimates shown at Yahoo finance.
Ticker Weight Price Current Earnings Forward Earnings
MSFT 10.70 63.95 1.86 Mar-02 2.03 Jun-03
INTC 7.13 34.17 0.51 Mar-02 1.01 Dec-03
CSCO 4.10 17.80 0.24 Apr-02 0.48 Jul-03
QCOM 3.51 43.80 0.86 Mar-02 1.17 Sep-03
ORCL 2.99 14.20 0.43 Feb-02 0.49 May-03
AMGN 2.68 59.72 1.22 Mar-02 1.71 Dec-03
DELL 2.43 28.91 0.65 Apr-02 0.88 Jan-04
MXIM 2.28 57.36 0.79 Mar-02 1.05 Jun-03
IMNX 2.05 29.70 0.30 Mar-02 0.43 Dec-03
AMAT 1.99 53.53 0.23 Apr-02 1.32 Oct-03
LLTC 1.78 46.86 0.69 Mar-02 0.81 Jun-03
XLNX 1.74 45.80 0.29 Mar-02 0.50 Mar-03
SEBL 1.70 36.01 0.47 Mar-02 0.77 Dec-03
CEFT 1.69 33.20 0.63 Mar-02 0.96 Dec-03
VRTS 1.62 44.41 0.60 Mar-02 0.91 Dec-03
CMCSK 1.41 34.79 -1.02 Mar-02 0.85 Dec-03
KLAC 1.39 69.47 1.51 Mar-02 1.30 Jun-03
PAYX 1.32 41.38 0.73 Feb-02 0.86 May-03
PSFT 1.31 36.59 0.62 Mar-02 0.92 Dec-03
CHIR 1.17 47.49 0.99 Mar-02 1.35 Dec-03
ALTR 1.15 24.81 0.21 Mar-02 0.48 Dec-03
SUNW 1.14 10.00 -0.06 Mar-02 0.20 Jun-03
BBBY 1.13 32.70 0.72 Feb-02 0.89 Feb-03
SBUX 1.12 22.96 0.51 Mar-02 0.65 Sep-03
GENZ 1.10 46.38 1.20 Mar-02 1.45 Dec-02
AAPL 1.09 24.66 0.57 Mar-02 0.73 Sep-03
EBAY 1.08 60.44 0.54 Mar-02 1.12 Dec-03
USAI 1.07 30.79 -0.23 Mar-02 0.56 Dec-03
MEDI 1.03 42.17 0.63 Mar-02 1.14 Dec-03
IDPH 1.02 67.59 0.63 Mar-02 1.19 Dec-03
BMET 0.99 30.65 0.90 Feb-02 1.08 May-03
FLEX 0.97 20.21 0.62 Mar-02 0.70 Mar-03
FISV 0.96 44.63 1.13 Mar-02 1.61 Dec-03
BGEN 0.94 51.65 1.91 Mar-02 2.31 Dec-03
INTU 0.92 36.89 1.07 Apr-02 1.27 Jul-03
CTAS 0.88 48.80 1.34 Feb-02 1.57 May-03
COST 0.87 39.91 1.38 Feb-02 1.68 Aug-03
ADBE 0.83 39.05 1.02 Feb-02 1.19 Nov-03
WCOM 0.82 9.19 0.66 Mar-02 0.80 Dec-03
JDSU 0.82 6.37 -0.05 Mar-02 0.01 Jun-03
GMST 0.82 22.59 0.00 Mar-02 0.68 Dec-03
NVDA 0.81 58.29 1.36 Apr-02 2.24 Jan-04
CHKP 0.74 35.33 1.21 Mar-02 1.50 Dec-03
ERTS 0.74 59.55 0.81 Mar-02 1.52 Mar-03
SANM 0.69 14.73 0.18 Mar-02 0.79 Sep-03
NVLS 0.67 53.97 0.68 Mar-02 1.21 Dec-03
NTAP 0.64 21.27 0.11 Apr-02 0.24 Apr-03
BRCM 0.64 44.16 -0.40 Mar-02 0.37 Dec-03
MLNM 0.63 23.66 -0.65 Mar-02 -0.72 Dec-03
GILD 0.62 36.12 -0.97 Mar-02 0.80 Dec-03
DISH 0.59 26.77 0.00 Mar-02 1.16 Dec-03
PCAR 0.59 75.49 2.18 Mar-02 3.64 Dec-03
BRCD 0.57 29.48 0.21 Apr-02 0.53 Oct-03
SPLS 0.57 20.39 0.69 Apr-02 0.94 Jan-04
VRSN 0.56 31.50 0.73 Mar-02 1.36 Dec-03
NXTL 0.55 6.59 -1.84 Mar-02 -1.44 Dec-02
ADLAC 0.54 25.06 -4.82 Mar-02 -2.97 Dec-02
SYMC 0.52 41.95 1.24 Mar-02 1.42 Mar-03
BEAS 0.50 15.62 0.29 Apr-02 0.43 Jan-04
APOL 0.50 47.77 1.00 Feb-02 1.38 Aug-03
Forward PE (circa Mar-02) = 57.7
Forward PE (circa Dec-03) = 37.7
Notes:
1) The 60 stocks used in the calculation account for 87.4% of the weighting
2) Current Earnings includes all quarters up to Feb-02, Mar-02 or Apr-02
3) Forward earnings end date varies for each company according to accounting year
4) Pro-forma figures as per Yahoo Finance are used
5) Analyst estimates as per Yahoo Finance are used
6) Future earnings estimates again seem to be discounting a hefty recovery. |
