***** Technical Analysis (April 1)****
The market technical indicators are still not extreme enough to signal a bottom yet, but in the short term they are oversold enough for a technical bounce this week.
The Summation Indexes are continuing downward but the McClellan Oscillators improved this week and a multi-day rally could turn them back up, but the question is for how long? Probably 3-10 days, and then back down.
The weekly stochastics are crossed down and have been so since early January but they too are not indicating an intermediate or long term bottom has been made yet.
The odds are that very few sectors can act well in the next few months, and even the energy sector can have weeks of weakness during this time period, though they may recover the best. For now, however, energy stocks have lagged the price of crude and gas, a negative sign.
When spot prices are lower and energy stocks have stopped going down, then bullish divergences can occur. Crude has strong support at 41 while 46, 48 and 52 could get tested in the weeks ahead. Even if spot crude stays relatively high, the stocks could fall further in sympathy with the overall market.
Gold and interest rate-related stocks may do quite poorly in the months ahead as technicals are working against them. The USD has firmed up for the time being and is benefitting from a double bottom, both factors are negative for gold and silver stocks. Also, the HUI has lagged the spot price.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
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