***** Technical Analysis (for April 29)*****
The markets were up modestly on moderately light trading and the Dow briefly reached and surpassed the 8522 resistance level before closing below it at 8502. The Nasdaq closed above its 1467 level by 4 points and it reached 1482 intra-day.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a very positive .38, with a/d of 8/7, up/down volume 3/1, indicating moderate accumulation on selected issues, on 1.7B shares. The MACD, Williams%R, DMI, CCI, Acc/Dist and Aroon remained positive while the Money Flow improved to join them being positive. The RSI rose to 65.7.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped by only 2 points to +32, once again implying a good chance for a large move within 4 sessions. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator also dropped by only 2 points to +34, so it too is portending a large move soon. The 10% indexes are getting extreme again and it will take a strong rally to keep them there. The Summation Index for the Nasdaq/NYSE are at +239/+784, respectively.
The slow stochastics are also getting extreme, along with the DMI's +DI and -DI.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a positive .71, with a/d of 19/14, up/down volume 9/5, on moderately light volume of 1.5B shares.
The VIX and VXN were virtually unchanged at 23 and 33 while the put/call ratio rose to .89.
The volume increased modestly today and bulls would like to see even more volume on the next couple of rally days. Technicians would be impressed with an increase of 20% or more from the average, which would roughly equate to 2.2B shares.
The Nasdaq remains having relative strength while the blue chips are not quite as strong.
Earnings have been fairly strong this reporting season so far and that's been reflected in this rally along with the war premium.
If this rally is to extend for any length of time, it will probably have to have heavier volume. There are only a few divergences currently so the major indices could break out a little more in the days ahead, but the next intermediate term trend of 2-4 months is more likely to be down.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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