***** Technical Analysis (for April 3)*****
A narrow trading range today was a breather from the volatility of the last few sessions. The Dow was down modestly while the Nasdaq was unchanged while the market internals were mixed.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .57, with a/d of 1/1, up/down volume 8/5, indicating selective accumulation, on light volume of 1.46B shares. The MACD remained neutral for the second day in a row, an unusual occurrence, while the DMI, Money Flow and Acc/Dist also remained neutral. The Williams%R, OBV, CCI, and Aroon remained neutral while the OBV worsened to negative. The RSI was unchanged at 58.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator declined to +32 while the 105 index remained well above the zero line and 5% component. The weekly and daily stochastic are uncrossed at 53%/83%, respectively.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a mildly negative 1.28, with a/d of 14/17, up/down volume 5/8, on light volume of 1.3B shares. The Dow weekly stochastic is 53% uncrossed, and daily is 74% crossed down. The McClellan Oscillator declined to +34 from +47.
The sentiment indicators were basically unchanged and remain mixed, with positive readings from the VIX and VXN, neutral for the put/call ratio and negative readings from the advisors from Investors Intelligence.
The Nasdaq gap above at 1403 was filled today and we closed a little below at 1396, so if we don't rally back up to close above that gap fill in the next day or two, then a decline would be more likely as the next short term (as opposed to near term) trend move.
The Nasdaq remains well above its 200 and 50 day moving averages (1339/1336) but it has done this before and failed each time so it has a lot to prove in the intermediate and longer term from a technical standpoint.
Some choppy strength is still possible as the McClellan Oscillator is positive but any significant weakness in the breadth momentum, MACD, or stochastic indicators could portend a major decline. The trading range of 7950 to 8522 might not be resolved for several more days.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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