***** Technical Analysis (week ending April 2)****
The major market indices continued to rally in the last several days of the week and the better than expected jobs report on Friday should provide further upside impetus early this coming week.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed Friday at .33, 60 minute stochastic crossed up (a negative in the near term), a/d of 11/5, up/down volume 7/1, indicating strong accumulation, on heavy volume of 2.2B shares. Its a/d line improved but is still negative. The McClellan Oscillator improved to +56, an extreme positive level. Summation is now rising and closed at a -222 for the week, and could threaten to turn into positive territory this week.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic is 90% crossed up, weekly was much improved to 65% crossed down, daily 93% crossed up, hourly 100% crossed up. The index has risen to just above the 50 dma and has a large gap below. The MACD, Williams%R, CCI, DMI (ADX), and Acc/Dist are now positive. The Money Flow and Aroon remain negative. The RSI rose to 61.6 this week.
Favorable seasonality is close to ending (April) and the time period of May to October is typically weak.
The Dow monthly stochastic is 92% crossed up, weekly 75% crossed down, daily 71% crossed up, hourly 83% crossed down. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator improved to +32 and Summation Index has now risen to +444.
The question is whether the current rally is another leg up or just a resetting of the supply/demand balance and technical indicators. We should know in the next week, or two at the latest, by the action of the indices, market internals, and divergences.
The USD remains in a trading range between 87-89 but rallied strongly on Friday and is threatening to rise to 90, while gold rallied to the 431 retest level this week before turning back down and closing at 421, and silver closed near its highs in the 7.70 area. Bonds weakened late in the week and energy also fell.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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