***** Technical Analysis (for April 4)*****
As mentioned in today's AOL Stocktimers TA meeting (6pm PST every Sunday), the market appears to be positive in the short term, and the Dow should retest 8522 early this week, and if the internals are strong, it will take it out. Favorable seasonality has about 80% probability (especially if market rallies into April) and it runs out in April.
The war news has been good this weekend and that is not unexpected, so the euphoria related to this can encourage buyers. The futures are up very sharply as I write this, which confirms the idea that we will rally in the short term and very possibly break out of the recent trading range to the upside.
Friday's Nasdaq TRIN was a negative 1.79, but the NYSE TRIN was neutral at 1.05, and the Dow and S&P 500 were actually up while the Nasdaq was down about 13 points, thus, the marekt was not very weak.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator fell to +24 but its 10% index is well above the zero line and the 5% one. The NYSE Oscillator was down by only 1 point to +33, thus signalling a large move within 4 sessions, and it appears that it will happen on Monday. The Summation Indexes continue to move up for both the Nasdaq and NYSE.
The Nasdaq is above its 200 and 50 day moving averages and the Dow and S&P 500 are near their moving averages and should surpass them on Monday if the futures are any indication.
The Nasdaq MACD is neutral for a third day in a row, an unusual occurrence, and this implies a large move out of this neutral reading. The DMI and Money Flow remain positive while the majority of others are neutral. The RSI remains positive at 54.
Sentiment indicators remain mixed as the advisors bullish are 47% and bearish are 34%, while VIX and VXN are slightly positive and the put/call ratio is neutral.
The "good war news" is providing an excuse to buy for investors and institutions. The question is how high will the market go on positive war developments and how long will the market ignore some other factors, such as fundamental ones which are not as positive.
For now, "don't fight the tape" seems wise while one should consider shortening up (in terms of time) their committments either way.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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