***** Technical Analysis (May 9)*****
A sharp rally on Friday prevented some technical indicators from turning negative or getting close to negative so the decline mid-week was a resetting and not the start of a precipitous decline it would seem.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a positive .56, with a/d of 11/5, up/down volume 7/2, on light volume of 1.6B shares, indicating mild to moderate accumulation. The Williams%R, CCI and Acc/Dist improved back to positive while the MACD also improved to more positive. The rate of change remained negative, while the DMI, Money Flow and Aroon remained positive. The RSI rose to 66.8.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator rose to +28 from +13, and its 10% index turned back up. The stochastics are crossed up.
The NYSE TRIN closed at .77, with a/d of 3/1, up/down volume 4/1, on light volume of 1.3B shares. The McClellan Oscillator rose to +35 from +19.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are still crossed up but another couple of rally days could turn them back down. For now, they are giving a negative reading. The put/call ratio dropped to .82 and its MACD is giving a neutral reading. Advisors are very bullish from the AAII and Investors Intelligence surveys.
When the Dow closed above 8522 a week ago on the 2nd, it implied that 8800 resistance would be tested and that can come about this coming week. The Nasdaq is only 11 points away from its recent high, so that level (1531) might get taken out in the next rally day.
The intermediate term rally from March continues. If it rallies on heavy volume, it increases the odds of it lasting longer. Otherwise, it might be indicative of a complex topping formation for the longer term.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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